Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Why smart CEOs are looking past the rosy ‘record Black Friday’ headlines

In today’s CEO Daily: Phil Wahba throws cold water on upbeat Black Friday numbers.
The big story: Fears of a crypto winter take hold.
The markets: Trending up.
Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.

Good morning. I’ve spent the past several days digesting consumer data. Countless headlines breathlessly trumpeted a Black Friday bonanza after MasterCard Spending Pulse estimated retail sales rose 4.1% to a new record on shopping’s biggest day of the year, with online spending easily outpacing in-store shopping. Salesforce found strong online growth in dollar terms and forecasts for the same trends on Cyber Monday.

But there’s still plenty to worry about for CEOs, especially those of any consumer-facing company. For one thing, the spending growth is fueled almost entirely by inflation and not shoppers buying more items. Salesforce, which tracks online spending, found order volumes fell 1% compared to last year while average selling prices increased 7%. Volume barely budged in 2024 either, so consumer spending has been stagnating for two years now.

For another, Adobe found that consumer use of “Buy Now Pay Later” services, especially popular among younger consumers, rose 11% on Black Friday compared to last year, suggesting these shoppers are struggling to stretch their dollar. The more affluent were, of course, the exception once again, buoyed by a stock market that is making them feel wealthy: Salesforce found luxury clothing and accessories saw the biggest growth of any category, rising 21%

What all these data point to is a consumer who, at the lower income end, is stretched but willing to spend on items they consider worth it. In other words, retail spending trends remain somewhat stagnant, echoing what C-suite executives told Wall Street in the last two weeks during retail’s earnings season. Here’s a smattering of how top Fortune 500 CEOs see the landscape heading into the all-important holiday season:

“Customers remain resilient but deal-focused and attracted to more predictable sales moments.”—Best Buy CEO Corie Barry

“Our customers are becoming increasingly choiceful as their discretionary income remains pressured. These customers are becoming increasingly savvy and are seeking more value.”—Kohl’s CEO Michael Bender

“They want quality and price to coexist. Sentiment is at a three-year low amid concerns about jobs, affordability, and tariffs. Yet they remain emotionally motivated.”—Target Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez

“There is a trend toward innovation and newness in the products that are coming down the pike that are keeping the consumer really energized. And retailers that combine good prices with a broad array of interesting merchandise and modern customer service remain the winners.”—Dick’s Sporting Goods CEO Lauren Hobart

“Everything that we’ve seen so far makes us optimistic and encouraged about customers and members leaning into the seasonal events and holiday shopping period.”—Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey

—Phil Wahba

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

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