Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Amazon CTO Werner Vogels just released his 2026 tech predictions. He’s most optimistic about ‘personalized learning’ and ‘renaissance developers’

In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady talks with Amazon CTO Werner Vogels about emerging tech trends.
The big story: Google challenges Nvidia’s AI chips.
The markets: Flat in Europe; small gains in Asia.
Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.

Good morning. Several years ago, Amazon CTO Werner Vogels began sharing predictions on how technology would likely impact our lives the following year. In the past, he has foreseen the impact of digital technology in sports, AI assistants in developer productivity, machine learning embedded in production lines, and ‘fem tech’ in women’s health. As CTO since 2005, he occupies a unique perch to see—and even shape—what’s next. He also has a vested interest, of course, in embracing the technologies that his company creates. But these predictions are worth taking note of as these trends—if they materialize—will affect wide swaths of the economy.

So what’s he forecasting for 2026?

Companionship is redefined for those who need it most: Companion robots will address the loneliness epidemic, especially for seniors and those with cognitive or other health issues.
The dawn of the renaissance developer: Like the Renaissance greats who understood science, art and engineering, polymath developers will thrive.
Quantum-safe becomes the only safe: With bad actors now harvesting data in anticipation of quantum’s arrival, the window for proactive defense is closing.
Defense technology changes the world: Defense contractors are flush with capital and acting more like startups, compressing the timeline from battlefield to civilian applications of the technology.
Personalized learning meets infinite curiosity: For most of human history, only the wealthy could afford a personal tutor or coach. That’s about to change.

I spoke with Vogels about the thinking behind this year’s predictions. Among other things, he admits that technology tools from AI to military drones can obviously harm or help, depending on the intention of the user. But he’s an optimist, especially about the potential for personalized learning and software developers.

And how does he see the mission of the CTO—a role that can cover everything from being the person who manages data centers to the founder focused on product? “I actually think CTOs are horrible managers. You should never put a CTO in charge of people,” he argues. “VPs of engineering wake up in the morning, thinking ‘Do I have the best team in the best situation? Can I shield them from politics and stuff like that?’ The CTO thinks about, ‘What’s the next technology that we should be building?’ Actually, that was my role for many years within Amazon. Then you become a technology provider, and then your role changes again. You have to understand how your customers are actually using your technology.”

As for what excites him most: “Especially in Africa, I’ve met so many motivated engineers that don’t want to come to the U.S. They don’t want to go work for a large company. They want to solve the problem in their country. I love that. That’s where the real progress lies.” Click here for our full interview.

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

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