Ottawa’s first fall-cycle budget in decades wraps a very large deficit in a shiny new “capital budgeting” story and a promise to catalyze $1 trillion of investment. The narrative is bold; the numbers rely on optimistic crowd-in assumptions, aggressive re-labelling of spending, and a growth turnaround that Canada hasn’t delivered in years.
What Ottawa says it’s doing
Reframed fiscal anchors. The government pledges to (1) balance day-to-day operating spending with revenues by 2028-29, and (2) keep a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio. It also touts a target to catalyze $500 billion of new private investment over five years, enabling “$1 trillion in total investment.”
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