Good morning. The U.S. shutdown is leading to cancelled flights, broken connections and an empty economic reporting agenda. More on what we’re tracking below – plus, a dive into Ottawa’s rising debt payments.

Budget: Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is in Calgary today to speak with business leaders about the federal government’s plan to boost economic growth. Prime Minister Mark Carney defended the budget in front of an underwhelmed Bay Street crowd on Friday.

Bonds: Corporate bonds. A wave of companies is rolling into the Canadian debt market to fund new projects, data centres and supply-chain overhauls.

BBC: The British broadcaster has been thrown into turmoil after its Director General and the head of its news division resigned last night over allegations of bias in its coverage of U.S. President Donald Trump, the war in Gaza as well as race and gender issues.

Grounded: Canada’s two major airlines told The Globe their operations have not yet been affected by U.S. flight cancellations, but they are watching closely – and preparing for potential impact on flights and passengers.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration ordered a 4-per-cent reduction in traffic last week to take pressure off air traffic controllers, who haven’t been paid since the government shut down about 40 days ago. Officials said the reduction will rise to 10 per cent this week and as high as 20 per cent if the situation persists.

The shutdown, which officially became the longest in the country’s history last week, grounded planes at least 40 airports at least, including those in New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.

The directive could cause disruptions for Canadians travelling to, from or through the U.S, and potentially within Canada as well, experts said.

But there is optimism the situation could soon be resolved after the Senate last night moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening the government.

Temperature check: The Bank of Canada’s market participants survey, out this morning, will show how investors and economists expect growth, inflation and interest rates to unfold through the coming months.

The last survey, released in August, showed market watchers expected Canada’s economy to grow less than 1 per cent this year, rising to about 1.8 per cent in 2026. They saw inflation easing toward 2 per cent and interest rates holding near 2.25 per cent through 2026 – broadly in line with the bank’s outlook for modest growth and a return to target inflation.

On Wednesday, the bank will release its summary of deliberations from its Oct. 29 meeting, when it announced it was cutting its trend-setting lending rate to 2.25 per cent from 2.5 per cent and signalled its easing cycle was likely finished.

Small businesses, big stakes: With traditional economic reports sidelined by the shutdown, investors will be bringing more scrutiny to U.S. releases like the National Federation of Independent Business confidence index. Heading into the fall, owners were growing increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations and labour market challenges.

A series of reports last week showed those concerns were well-founded: Data from work force analytics company Revelio Labs showed 9,100 jobs were lost in October, while U.S. employers’ planned layoffs soared to more than 153,000 last month, global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. The Chicago Fed estimated that the U.S. jobless rate likely edged up in October to the highest in four years.

At the bell: Domestic earnings include label-making giant CCL Industries Inc., CAE Inc., Loblaw Cos. Ltd. and Power Corp. Reports on Wall Street include Walt Disney and tech giant Cisco Systems – leading up to next week’s year-end finale from semiconductor giant Nvidia, the largest company in the world by market value.

Fears that stocks are in an “AI bubble” have kept Wall Street on edge. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 14 per cent year-to-date and 35 per cent since its low for the year in April.

“At current valuations and the kind of gains that we’ve seen ... investors are just starting to be a little bit more cautious,” Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial told Reuters. “I don’t think that is bad, but it is coming at a time where there is growing uncertainty around the pace of growth in the economy.”

The Globe in Brazil: Canadian climate negotiators are heading to Brazil as world leaders gather for the COP30 global climate summit. Ten years after the landmark Paris Agreement was signed, leaders will face questions about whether the deal is working and if countries are pulling back from their climate commitments.

In the town of Oiapoque, Brazil, a battle is unfolding on its northern frontier over plans to drill for oil at the mouth of the world’s largest rain forest, Natalie Alcoba writes. Hopes of prosperity are colliding with fears of environmental loss, as residents, Indigenous leaders and investors stake out their futures in the shadow of a new oil frontier.

With a report from Reuters