A new Pioneer Institute analysis argues that a proposed ballot question, spearheaded by its executive director to reduce the Massachusetts personal income tax rate from 5 percent to 4 percent would not cause major state revenue losses.

The report, Lessons from the 2000 Massachusetts Income-Tax Rollback: A Reality-Check for the 2025 Ballot Debate, reviews more than 20 years of fiscal data and concludes that a one-point cut “is unlikely to lead to significant or sustained losses in state revenue.”

“Critics of the tax proposal are once again trotting out the same simplistic doomsday analysis they did when a proposal to cut the state income tax rate was last on the ballot in 2000,” Pioneer executive director Jim Stergios said in a press release. “The evidence is clear: a one-percentage-point income tax cut implemented over three years did not cause a dramatic fall in revenues then, and it won’t now.”

Opponents in 2000 predicted a $2.7 billion revenue loss over four years if voters approved the phased-in reduction from 5.95 percent to 5.0 percent. The actual first-year impact was roughly $530 million, “one-fifth of the projected loss.” The study also notes that the early 2000s revenue drop “was driven not by tax policy but by economic shocks,” including the dot-com collapse and the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks.

By the next year, revenues stabilized, rising from $7.9 billion to $8.0 billion. Over the long term, Massachusetts collected higher real income tax revenues at 5.3 and 5.0 percent than it did at 5.95 percent in 2001.

“Poll after poll shows that the vast majority of Massachusetts families want tax relief," Stergios said. "Families feel squeezed for every penny as growth in the state budget far outpaces household income.”

He added that “for a state that’s losing private-sector jobs, talent, and investment to other states, a tax cut is an unalloyed good thing.”

Initiative petitions in Massachusetts require two separate rounds of signature gathering before they can qualify for the ballot. The number of signatures necessary is based on turnout from the most recent governor’s election.

Round 1 starts once petition forms are prepared by the Massachusetts Secretary of State. For 2026, petitioners received forms in mid-September after filing a request on the first Wednesday of that month. Supporters of a potential ballot question have to submit signatures of registered voters to local election officials by Wednesday, November 19, 2025, to allow time for certification. Then they collect the signature sheets from the local town halls and city halls and deliver them to the Secretary of State's Elections Division in Boston by Wednesday, December 3, 2025.

To advance past Round 1, petitions must gather signatures equal to 3 percent of the total votes cast for governor in the last election — about 74,574 signatures statewide for 2026. No more than 25 percent of those can come from a single county, meaning no more than 18,643 signatures per county. (The Bay State has 14 counties.)

If the petition meets that threshold, it advances to the Massachusetts legislature for review. If lawmakers don’t act on it by the first Wednesday in May — which next year is May 6, 2026 — petitioners can go to Round 2.

Round 2 opens on May 6, 2026, when petitioners ask for new petition forms, and ends on the first Wednesday in July — which next year is July 1, 2026 — with the filing of additional certified signatures. In this round, petitioners need to collect the equivalent of one-half of 1 percent of the votes cast for governor — roughly 12,429 signatures statewide — again with the 25 percent cap per county (about 3,107 signatures).

Only after successfully completing both rounds can the petition then officially qualify for the November 2026 ballot.