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Good afternoon, and welcome to Globe Climate, a newsletter about climate change, environment and resources in Canada.

Tomorrow is budget day, and Prime Minister Mark Carney will be trying to balance the numbers during a trade war with the United States. How will that change his approach to climate change – an issue he was once so loud and proud about?

We’ll be taking a closer look at that in today’s deep dive.

Now, let’s catch you up on other news.

1. Finance: Insufficient disclosure obscuring billions in Alberta oil sands liabilities, advocates say
2. Oil and gas: Climate activists say B.C. needs to conduct new assessment for natural gas pipeline
3. Mining: G7 pact pledges funds for Quebec, Ontario critical minerals projects
4. Pipelines: Ontario launches study on viability of East-West pipeline, energy corridor
5. Agriculture: U.S. agricultural export data blackout hits grain trade in Canada
6. Food and drink: Rising temperatures in Bordeaux usher in a golden age for cabernet sauvignon
7. History: ‘Frosty’ the rhino was a hairy tale, they say – roaming warmer climes of ancient times in an unexpected way
8. Science: University of Alberta’s David Wishart wins top Canadian science prize
9. Listen: Whales, extinction and the sounds of underwater noise pollution

For this week’s deeper dive, some prebudget thoughts before the document is tabled tomorrow.

This past week, political columnist Campbell Clark asked: Can Carney’s climate plan keep his grand bargain alive? The bargain in question is an attempt to satisfy both real climate action as well as oil and gas development.

That’s part of what we’ll be watching for in the Prime Minister’s “climate competitiveness strategy,” which will be folded into the Nov. 4 federal budget.

This strategy was supposed to be announced last month. Campbell says this suggests it will be a slimmed-down statement within the budget and “unlikely to be a plan that pleases climate activists.”

And we’re already getting hints of that. According to a senior government official, the savings plan includes scrapping a program to plant two billion trees by 2031.

The official said contracts are in place to plant nearly one billion trees. Those contracts will be honoured, but the remaining funds will be reallocated to “more effective” climate and clean-growth programs. The official did not say exactly how much would be saved by ending the program.

Meanwhile, Carney’s comments about cutting red tape and embracing Canada’s position as an “energy superpower” have been well received from Bay Street to Calgary.

But economists say that what Ottawa does with corporate taxation, environmental regulation and various industrial policy tools could have a bigger impact on investment than anything announced to date.

Clean electricity regulations and the place of natural gas in the country’s sustainable investing taxonomy could be up for changes. Ottawa could scrap the oil and gas emissions cap altogether. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in particular is hopeful that Carney will support plans for a new oil pipeline (if the industry backs carbon-reduction initiatives).

Adam Radwanski wrote about Carney’s climate vision and tried to better understand the meaning of “climate competitiveness.” (We also took a closer look in this newsletter last month).

He writes that it appears to be twofold. On one hand, it refers to getting existing Canadian industries to offer relatively low-carbon versions of their products. As mentioned, that includes the fossil-fuel sector. The other meaning is competing in growing low-carbon sectors, such as the electric-vehicle battery supply chain, non-emitting electricity, mass timber and early stage clean technologies.

The full details will be available tomorrow afternoon, when the budget is officially tabled. But reading the room so far, it seems there will be compromise when it comes to climate.

• About 1,400 annual deaths linked to wildfire smoke