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| The Daily Pitch |
| VC, PE and M&A |
| Your edge on global private capital markets |
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| Welcome to a new week. In today's Daily Pitch, we look at soaring VC funding for European biotech startups, new insights on retail fintech and an especially resilient IPO market in APAC. |
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| Private capital decouples from public markets |
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By Miles Ostroff, Associate Quantitative Research Analyst
Correlations between public and private markets have eased in recent quarters, signaling a return to the independence long expected of private strategies.
As public equities react to shifting global trade and tariff policies, private market performance is showing a greater degree of autonomy.
According to our Q2 2025 Private Capital Indexes, the rolling five-year correlation between private capital and the S&P 500 has declined notably since late 2024.
That partly reflects a statistical reset—recent periods are now outside the pandemic-era's extreme volatility window, which temporarily lifted correlations across nearly all asset classes.
But even when measured over a six-year rolling window, correlations continue to ease, suggesting that diversification benefits within private markets remain intact. |
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Private equity and venture capital have both shown reduced synchronicity with public benchmarks, while real assets have decoupled most visibly.
Public markets, meanwhile, remain highly reactive to policy pronouncements around global trade and tariffs. Private fund marks, by contrast, tend to be—borrowing from macroeconomics—sticky in the short run.
Valuations update quarterly, absorbing fundamental changes more gradually and avoiding the knee-jerk swings that dominate public trading.
While this doesn't fully resolve the lag effect or slow markdowns inherent in private valuations, desmoothed returns paint a clearer picture of how these strategies actually behave through different market regimes.
"Adjusting for return smoothing helps bridge the gap between reported and underlying volatility," said Zane Carmean, director of quantitative research at PitchBook. "It gives allocators a more realistic sense of how private capital moves in relation to public markets over time." |
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| Fundraising is back to pre-COVID levels |
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82% of funds surveyed find the fundraising environment stable. But capital is flowing unevenly depending on fund profiles.
Read the report |
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• Retail fintech VC may be taking a breather, but agentic finance is just getting started, according to our latest Emerging Tech Research. Access more data-driven insights
• VC funding for European biotech startups has hit new heights as AI adoption, exit momentum and regulatory support boost investor appetite. Go deeper
• Meta completed a $30 billion bond deal as it eyes aggressive up-front investments in AI capacity. It's the fifth largest high-grade bond deal on record, coming amid an industrywide land grab for prime position in AI. Read more |
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| India's PE-backed IPO market notches a record |
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By Emily Lai, Private Equity Reporter
PE exit value through IPOs in India has hit an all-time high this year, cementing the country’s status as one of Asia Pacific's most resilient markets for public listings.
The country is increasingly regarded as a preferred destination for IPO-ready companies, especially with a noticeable shift of global capital away from China.
PE investors have realized $43.7 billion through public listings in India as of Oct. 30, already surpassing last year's total. IPO count stands at 31, compared to 38 in all of 2024.
India has also hosted three of the region’s five largest PE-backed listings in the past two years. |
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These designations were buoyed by some hefty listings. Tata Capital, a unit of India's oldest conglomerate, held a $1.75 billion IPO on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India, making it the largest PE-backed IPO in India's history.
LG Electronics India also went public in October with a $1.3 billion IPO on the BSE and the NSE.
Strong domestic liquidity, stable macroeconomic conditions and a deepening equity culture have made the market one of the few in the region where IPOs remain a viable exit route, according to PitchBook research.
India's stock market also benefits from high retail participation and a supportive monetary environment. The median enterprise value/EBITDA multiples for new listings have remained in the 15x to 20x range. |
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Smart reads that caught our eye.
• Defense-tech funding is booming, but some startups may be overselling their capabilities. German startup Stark's drones failed to hit a single target during recent trials that were deemed a "disaster." [Financial Times]
• Meet the haunted house owner who wants to turn his property into a data center. Real estate developer Derek Strine wants to jump in on the AI infrastructure boom in the US. [Bloomberg]
• Are companies shooting themselves in the foot trying to implement AI across every domain? NTT Data CEO Abhijit Dubey believes selecting focus areas to invest in generative AI is a better strategy than broad-scale enablement. [Fortune] |
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