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Two paths diverge in the US economy...
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Good morning. As that dry frigid air sets in, a reminder to set up your ChapStick infrastructure before it’s too late: one at your desk, one by your bed, one in your backpack, one in your car, and one in your puffer coat pocket for the day you inevitably lose all of them. (Though Holly recommends Blistex Five Star, because it’s “totally superior.”)

Holly Van Leuven, Brendan Cosgrove, Neal Freyman

MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

23,724.96

S&P

6,840.20

Dow

47,562.87

10-Year

4.101%

Bitcoin

$107,917.38

Philip Morris

$144.33

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 12:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: October Effect? Don’t know her. On Friday, major indexes not only had winning days and winning weeks, but they also closed out positive months. For the S&P 500 and the Dow, October was their sixth winning month in a row. And for the Nasdaq, it was the seventh. Time will tell if November lives up to its reputation for being a strong month for stocks...
  • Stock spotlight: How can smartphone usage be this generation’s “smoking cigarettes” when popping Zyn pouches is this generation’s smoking cigarettes? Amateur sociologists may want to reconsider their metaphors in light of the kind of year Philip Morris is having. The company reported Q3 earnings that surpassed analysts’ expectations thanks to growth in its smoke-free product lines. PM has also benefited from a favorable regulatory environment in the US this year, according to Reuters.

 

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FINANCE

a tipped-over shopping cart

Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Recent earnings reports and consumer data show a bifurcation in the US that experts call a “K-shaped” economy. It means wealthy consumers do well and spend freely while lower- and middle-income people struggle and scrimp.

In the US’ current market realities, that looks like:

  • The affluent doing very well along with the booming stock market and the appreciation of their homes in the inventory-crunched real estate market.
  • Nearly everyone else faltering due to a shaky job market, high interest rates, and/or inflation.

Some of the sectors flashing “K”

Auto: In September, the cost of a new vehicle passed the $50,000 mark for the first time, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book. And repossession volume passing through Manheim, the auction group owned by Cox, was up 12% through the end of September on an annualized basis, according to the Wall Street Journal’s deep-dive into the rise of auto repos.

Airlines: Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said that sales of premium seats would exceed those of coach seats for at least one or two quarters in 2026.

Food & bev: Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey told CNBC that sales of its premium brands, like Smartwater, Topo Chico, and Fairlife, are juicing the company’s sales, while Coke demand is up at dollar stores, as well as at amusement parks frequented by higher spenders.

Consumer goods: Apple grew by double digits last quarter, thanks to strong sales of the $799 iPhone 17. And while economist Leo Feler told Marketplace that “everyone has kept buying health and personal care items,” how and when they buy them has changed. Wealthier shoppers are making hauls at Costco, while budget-constrained shoppers use up everything at home before going shopping.

Zoom out: Economic trends suggest that the gap will widen rather than narrow. Economist Betsey Stevenson of the University of Michigan told Marketplace, “The real risk to a K-shaped economy is social and political instability.”—HVL

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WORLD

Lights flickering on the capitol building

Francis Scialabba

Government shutdown enters fifth week, with more consequences. More than 65,000 children are at risk of losing access to Head Start, the national childcare and early childhood learning program for low-income families, as more funding lapses hit centers in multiple states. Local Head Start programs receive their annual funding at different times of the year. Those that receive their annual budget on Oct. 1 have already been disrupted. Now, those scheduled to receive funding on Nov. 1 have been impacted, as will those with Dec. 1 funding dates if the shutdown continues. And yesterday, on CBS’s Face the Nation, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that he would not fire air traffic controllers who do not show up to work without pay during the government shutdown, and “We will slow traffic down, you’ll see delays, we’ll have flights canceled to make sure the system is safe” if there aren’t enough ATCs to cover shifts. And on CNN’s State of the Union, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump administration “could” make SNAP payments by Wednesday. If the shutdown continues until Wednesday, it will be the longest ever.

The Dodgers bested the Blue Jays to win the World Series. It all came down to Game 7 on Saturday night in Toronto. With a tie in the ninth inning, the Dodgers called in relief pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who had pitched six innings the day before and had never before pitched on consecutive days as a professional. Yamamoto proceeded to throw a perfect defensive inning in the 10th and helped clinch the final outs in the 11th inning to secure victory for Los Angeles, 5–4, and the title. Yamamoto was named World Series MVP. After the game, fellow Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani said of Yamamoto, “I have no idea how he pulled it off. I really believe he is the No. 1 pitcher in the whole world.” The Dodgers will bring the Commissioner’s Trophy to the victory parade today in Los Angeles. City officials are anticipating high levels of fan delirium: Hearings scheduled for Monday at downtown Los Angeles courthouses have been postponed due to street closures and expected crowd sizes.

Las Vegas gets largest fleet of police Cybertrucks from billionaire tech donor. Investor Ben Horowitz, who co-founded Andreessen Horowitz, and his wife, Felicia, donated 10 black-and-white Cybertruck patrol vehicles to the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department. The couple is prominent in the area. Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill called the vehicles “the future of policing” at a press conference and said 400 officers had been trained to operate the truck, which will roll out onto the streets of Vegas within the next two weeks. McMahill said the vehicles have been updated with extended battery capacity, ladders, shields, and shotguns. The gesture by the philanthropists has raised concerns about private-interest donations in the public sphere.—HVL

GROCERY

An Amazon van parked in front of a Whole Foods.

Patrick T. Fallon/Getty Images

The Everything Store is looking for a more organic way to sell you junk food. Enter Whole Foods, the grocery chain that built its name on natural ingredients.

Having its Berry Chantilly Cake and Little Debbies, too: Amazon, which bought Whole Foods in 2017, doesn’t want to sully the chain’s clean-living reputation, but it also doesn’t want to miss out on Americans spending on groceries.

So, it’s experimenting with ways to introduce mass-market brands, like cordoning them off to their own special section. According to the Wall Street Journal:

  • In one Philadelphia-area store, if customers crave something they can’t find, they can order it on the Amazon app, and a team of backroom robots will get it to them.
  • In Chicago, one store’s coffee shop and seating area were replaced by an “Amazon Grocery” kiosk reminiscent of a convenience store.

More is in store: Amazon, which has been working to more closely integrate its operations with Whole Foods, hasn’t said whether it’ll expand the experiments, but it’s definitely not done tweaking its grocery game. Amazon plans to launch its own private label grocery brand and expand same-day delivery of perishable food items to 2,300 cities by 2026.—BC

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CALENDAR

Voters at the polls in New York.

Charly Triballeau/Getty Images

President Trump’s tariffs are before the Supreme Court: Justices will hear arguments on Wednesday over whether the bulk of the president’s sweeping tariffs pass legal muster. The US Constitution says it’s up to Congress to set taxes and duties, but the White House argues that trade deficits with other countries are a national emergency, and that clears the way for the president to have broad tariff powers. If the court ends up ruling against the administration, it won’t wipe away all of Trump’s tariffs, but it could water down one of his most powerful trade weapons.

Tesla shareholders will vote on Elon Musk’s massive new compensation package: Shareholders will have a lot of zeroes to consider at Tesla’s annual meeting this Thursday. If approved, Musk’s new pay plan could be worth a trillion dollars if he hits certain ambitious milestones for the company. Board Chair Robyn Denholm has urged shareholders to green-light the massive compensation package, warning that Musk may leave Tesla if it’s not approved. The world’s biggest proxy firm, Institutional Shareholder Services, is among the groups recommending that shareholders vote against the pay plan.

Election Day is Tuesday: The Big Apple looms especially large in politics this week as democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani and former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent) vie for New York City mayor. Keep an eye on Republican Curtis Sliwa, who could play spoiler in the race, which has been billed as a fight for the future of the Democratic Party. Elsewhere in the country, gubernatorial races are taking place in New Jersey and Virginia, a redistricting measure is on the ballot in California, and a special election is being held in Texas to fill its 18th Congressional District. The district, which represents the Houston area, is predominantly Democratic.

Everything else:

  • Red-hot data software firm Palantir reports earnings today.
  • Markets will get some fresh manufacturing data today, courtesy of the US purchasing managers’ index.
  • AMD, Shopify, Spotify, Uber, Pfizer, and BP report earnings tomorrow.
  • The ADP private payroll employment report will be released on Wednesday, helping to fill the vacuum of jobs data during the shutdown.
  • Qualcomm, Arm, Toyota, Honda, Robinhood, Novo Nordisk, McDonald’s, and DoorDash will deliver results on Wednesday.
  • Takeover target Warner Bros. Discovery will report earnings on Thursday, along with AstraZeneca, ConocoPhillips, and Airbnb.
  • Predator: Badlands has a chance to become the highest-grossing movie of the franchise when it’s released on Friday.
  • Sydney Sweeney stars as pro boxer Christy Martin in the biopic Christy, hitting theaters on Friday.
  • The creator of Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul, Vince Gilligan, has a new show, Pluribus, hitting Apple TV on Friday.
  • The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading will be released on Friday.
  • Wendy’s and Constellation Energy post earnings on Friday.

STAT

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett holding up his hand.

Johannes Eisele/Getty Images

Warren Buffett has effectively turned Berkshire Hathaway’s books into Smaug’s lair. The conglomerate reported on Saturday that it had stockpiled $381.7 billion in cash—a company record—after another quarter of net selling equities and declining to buy back its own shares.

The cash hoarding could indicate that Buffett is taking a more cautious approach to the current market, or that he’s simply waiting for a better opportunity to arise.

The 95-year-old is also stepping down as CEO at the end of the year, and all of that cash will give his replacement, Greg Abel, a (Warren) buffet of options to chart his own course. That $381.7 billion is more than the combined market caps of Spotify, Robinhood, and DoorDash. According to Barchart, it’s enough to theoretically buy any one of 477 companies in the S&P 500.—BC

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NEWS

  • A Michigan lawyer representing one of the young people suspected of plotting a Halloween weekend terrorist attack by FBI Director Kash Patel disputed the allegations and said he doesn’t expect charges to be filed.
  • In a 60 Minutes interview, President Trump said that he has received assurances from Xi Jinping that China will not intervene in Taiwan while Trump is in office.
  • New Mexico launched free childcare for all, a first for a US state.
  • Martha Stewart is releasing a facsimile edition of her first book, Entertaining, from 1982, to capitalize on Gen Z’s interest in her.
  • Fast-casual dining is experiencing a fallout due to economic conditions. And maybe also Martha?
  • Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little broke the NFL record for longest field goal with a 68-yard kick last night against the Las Vegas Raiders.
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