Why Deadlock in Congress Has the US Headed for a Record Shutdown

This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Today, congressional correspondent Erik Wasson looks at the reasons why this shutdown could break a record. Sign up here. Email our editors here.

Stalemate

The US is hurtling toward the longest government shutdown on record because both Democrats and Republicans think they are winning with voters and President Donald Trump’s budget maneuvers have staved off some of the pain points that normally would increase pressure to end the standoff.

Shutdown stalemates typically end due to a combination of tanking public approval for one of the parties and acute outrage from people directly affected by the closure.

During the 2013 shutdown under then-President Barack Obama, Republicans were clearly blamed as they tried and failed to repeal Obamacare, and the shuttering of national parks made the effects very visible to the public. Republicans caved after 16 days.

During the 35-day 2018-2019 shutdown in Trump’s first term, the longest so far, the president was blamed for trying to force a border wall on Democrats. When unpaid air traffic controllers threatened to shut down the US skies, the White House backed off.

Twenty-two days into this shutdown, the impact on the public is more hidden.

Trump found a legally dubious way to pay the military on Oct. 15, has funneled money to some Homeland Security workers and kept the National Parks open. A food-aid program for pregnant women and infants has been kept afloat through accounting moves, and the administration is searching for a way to pay air traffic controllers.

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Democrats believe their shutdown message is winning. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said every day is “getting better” for Democrats as they demand an extension of expiring Obamacare tax credits. They’re counting on some 22 million Americans seeing a spike their Affordable Care Act premiums as the November open enrollment period looms will force Trump to see the political peril of refusing to negotiate.

Republicans believe they have the upper hand. The House passed a no-strings stopgap bill to keep the government open through Nov. 21. The GOP also sees the Democrats’ counteroffer as far too ambitious, expensive and easy to attack.

Numerous polls give Democrats an edge on who the public blames for the shutdown, but only narrowly, and some show the blame spread roughly evenly among Trump, Republicans in Congress and Democrats.

Because the public sees no clear-cut villain and the pain has been minimal, Congress is poised to set break its record for gridlock. — Erik Wasson

Don’t Miss

The US will announce a “substantial” new round of sanctions against Russia, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, signaling Trump is set to ratchet up pressure on Moscow after backing off plans for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.

The US plans to announce a “substantial” increase in sanctions related to Russia within the next day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced without providing details.

The Trump administration is weighing export restrictions against China that would bar the purchase of a wide swath of critical software, according to a White House official.

The US military struck a suspected drug-trafficking boat in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, expanding an aggressive campaign of airstrikes that so far had been limited to the Caribbean Sea.

Trump attacked US cattle ranchers over their criticism of his plan to slash record beef prices by importing more meat from Argentina, deepening a quarrel over his trade policy with a group of reliable supporters.

A gaucho gathers cattle on a ranch in Rosario, Argentina, on Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2025. Renowned ranching nation Argentina is importing beef as President Javier Milei's currency and trade policies make it more affordable to source supplies abroad while local prices remain high. Photographer: Sebastian Lopez Brach/Bloomberg — A gaucho herds cattle on a ranch in Rosario, Argentina.

The president is planning to launch a new investigation into drug prices that could result in tariffs on pharmaceutical products or other trade actions that could exacerbate tensions with major economies.

Two men pardoned by Trump are suing financial institutions, claiming they were “debanked” even after their White House reprieves, testing the bounds of forgiveness and if clemency is truly meant to wipe the slate clean.

Trump is interested in meeting Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and officials are discussing a possible meeting while the two are in Malaysia for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to travel to Israel this week to help reinforce a fragile, US-brokered ceasefire agreed to with Hamas earlier this month.

An advocacy group for statisticians urged House lawmakers to strike a provision in a spending bill that would restrict the Census Bureau’s ability to repeatedly contact respondents.

Watch & Listen

Today on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power early edition at 1 p.m., hosts Joe Mathieu and Tyler Kendall interviewed Republican Representative Jason Smith, chair of the Ways and Means Committee, and Democratic Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz about the continuing standoff over government spending.

On the program at 5 p.m., Joe and Julie Fine talk with Senators Ron Johnson, a Republican, and Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat, about the shutdown.

On the Big Take Asia podcast, host K. Oanh Ha and Bloomberg’s Daniel Ten Kate dig into how China is weaponizing rare earths and what the economic standoff means for a trade deal and the future of US-China relations. Listen on iHeart, Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Chart of the Day

Home price gains in the Washington, DC, area are expected to come to an end, at least temporarily. Year-ahead forecasts from Zillow based on the typical home are expected to be unchanged or fall in 6 of the top 25 largest housing markets in the US. Nationally, homes are expected to gain 1.9% over the next year before adjusting for inflation. In the Washington area, homes prices in September 2026 are expected to show no change in value from September 2025. In five markets, led by San Francisco, prices are expected to fall, while prices in Charlotte, North Carolina, are expected to gain the most with a 2.8% increase. — Alex Tanzi

What’s Next

Existing home sales for September will be reported tomorrow by the National Association of Realtors.

The delayed consumer price index for September is set to be released on Friday.

The University of Michigan’s final read of consumer sentiment for the month will be released Friday.

The summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations opens Saturday in Malaysia.

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee meets Oct. 28-29.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders summit opens Oct. 31.

Seen Elsewhere

Trump has placed supporters of his false claims about election fraud into key government jobs even as he dismantles systems designed to secure voting, according to the New York Times.
Researchers focused on the effects of climate change recreated a killed government weather disaster database and found the first half of the year was the costliest ever in the US, NBC News reports.
Former Republican Senator John E. Sununu, a Trump critic, plans to run again for the seat he once held representing New Hampshire to replace retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, Politico reports.