Washington, DC

1. Shutdown could make history
2. Trump eyes diplomatic deals
3. Leaders praise Trump
4. White House’s China stance
5. Execs ding tariffs
6. Democrats’ primary problem
7. Data center politics

Washington View: Trump’s inevitable Nobel

Trump hosts Milei, awards Kirk Medal of Freedom … IMF issues World Economic Outlook … Japan’s Nikkei ⬇️ 2.6%

Shutdown could be one of nation’s longest

President Donald Trump’s move to pay the military outside the congressional spending process on Wednesday removes a key shutdown pain point for Congress — and that could push this standoff into record territory. The Senate is back today for Day 14 of the shutdown; without a deal by this weekend, it will become the third-longest ever, ticking past the 16- and 17-day shutdowns of 2013 and 1978, respectively. There’s no end in sight despite continuing bipartisan chatter and Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s hopes for an off-ramp. House Republicans may need eventually to write a new stopgap bill, considering the seven-week continuing resolution they passed earlier is already outdated by two weeks. On the flip side, Democrats want a deal on expiring health care subsidies before the Affordable Care Act marketplaces open up on Nov. 1. Now, they have barely two weeks to achieve that result.

— Burgess Everett

Trump eyes more diplomatic deals

Trump returns from the Middle East with momentum at his back, after receiving a standing ovation at Israel’s parliament as living Israeli hostages were released by Hamas, with the remains of four deceased captives later handed over. US officials acknowledge there’s a long way to go, including rebuilding Gaza; in a sign of the truce’s fragility, Israeli forces on Tuesday opened fire on several Palestinians whom they said crossed a boundary for an initial Israeli pullback, violating ceasefire terms. Trump’s win on the world stage already has him looking toward other lofty goals, like ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will meet with Trump Friday, told Fox News that Trump’s success with Israel and Hamas provides “hope” for an end to that fighting. And Trump offered an olive branch to Iran, too: “We are ready when you are… And it’s going to happen.”

— Shelby Talcott

World leaders praise Trump on Gaza

The Gaza peace plan was a diplomatic coup for Trump, analysts said, drawing praise from even his political foes. World leaders were summoned to Egypt at short notice — “like 20 minutes” in some cases, according to Trump — to witness the signing of a document committing to supporting peace between Israelis and Palestinians. The event offered “a brutal lesson in realpolitik,” The Guardian said, with leaders jockeying to position themselves next to Trump. Even former President Joe Biden, who sharply criticized Trump during two election campaigns, casting him as a threat to democracy, commended him for pulling it off. It was “a stunning display of personal and presidential power,” NBC’s chief international correspondent wrote.

White House whipsaws on China

The Trump administration’s posture toward China has Washington and Wall Street feeling whiplash. Trump softened his rhetoric towards Chinese leader Xi Jinping after threatening 100% tariffs on Beijing over its export controls on rare earths. The curbs were a “miscalculation,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox Business Monday, “but we are communicating now.” A planned Trump-Xi meeting next month remains on track, despite Trump’s doubts last week. Stocks rallied after dipping on Friday, and there are plenty of reasons to believe Trump still wants a trade deal: The US president needs one before the holiday shopping season, “and maybe even before the Supreme Court rules against him,” one Shanghai-based professor told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Trump’s lumber tariffs — which will hit Canada hard — take effect today. Any businesses publicly criticizing Trump’s duties will be tracked by the White House, per The Wall Street Journal.

Democrats’ primary problem

Democrats have a good shot at taking back the House next year — if they can solve their primary problem, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and David Weigel report. A growing crop of competitive House Democratic primaries is causing real heartburn in more purple districts across Maine, California, and Colorado, where the party favorite often polls better against a Republican in a general election than the progressive challenger. But even if the favorites win, they could enter those general elections drained of money and energy in a cycle where redistricting and narrow margins make every race more crucial. The latest example: Maine state auditor Matt Dunlap’s announcement last week that he will challenge moderate Rep. Jared Golden — whose district is the reddest in the country held by a Democrat — despite the party’s concerns that Dunlap’s doing so could lose them the seat.

BRT warns against ‘broad’ tariffs

The Business Roundtable is warning against the use of the kinds of expansive tariffs Trump has favored as the US looks to rebuild its domestic manufacturing industry. The group, composed of leading US CEOs, touts a number of GOP policies in a new “road map” for bolstering US manufacturing: For instance, it calls for the US to maintain a low corporate tax rate, which Republicans included in their tax cuts-and-spending bill earlier this year. But while the group’s report approves of “targeted, strategic tariffs” designed to address unfair trade practices, it warns that “broad based tariffs raise costs for US companies and consumers.” BRT, which is a partner in Semafor’s World Economy Summit this month, calls for inking “durable” trade agreements, as well as reforming regulations, increasing domestic energy production, and enhancing workforce development programs.

Data centers blamed for high power costs

A growing number of candidates in both parties are blaming high electricity costs on the boom in data center construction, Semafor’s David Weigel writes — and while the issue hasn’t yet defined a big state or national race, it has plenty of salience in local contests. In Virginia, for example, state House of Delegates candidates have clashed over who is more beholden to energy and tech lobbyists. Faiz Shakir, the founder of the progressive group More Perfect Union, said his party was sleeping on an issue that could ignite grassroots anger: “For any Democrat who wants to think politically, what an opportunity,” Shakir said. “The people are way ahead of the politicians.” The synthesis, David writes, may be a movement “uniting NIMBYs who don’t want enormous corporate campuses in their communities with AI skeptics who don’t think local economies should depend on the industry.”

There’s a sweet genre of videos of American professors getting surprised in the middle of the night by the news they’ve won the Nobel Prize, Semafor’s Ben Smith writes. The Norwegian Nobel Institute is getting in on the action, filming a behind-the-scenes video of its director, Kristian Berg Harpviken, delivering what the @nobelprize Instagram caption describes as “the emotional moment this year’s laureate María Corina Machado finds out she has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.” In a particularly goofy touch, Harpviken wears wired headphones. Machado is stunned and says she has “no words.” Harpviken’s voice cracks while he reads the citation. I watched the video and thought: There is no way these people can stand up to Trump. The Norwegians seem to want to resist the US president, who has been campaigning for the prize and whose Gaza deal will make him harder to reject.

Carlos Cuerpo, Minister of Economy, Trade and Business, Spain; Mohammad Nidal al-Shaar, Minister of Economy and Industry, Syria; Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Minister of Economy and Finance, Greece; Dr. Kamau Thugge, Governor, Central Bank of Kenya; and Pierre Wunsch, Governor, National Bank of Belgium, will join the stage at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit. Hosted in the Gallup Great Hall and spanning eight sessions over two days, the summit will feature on-the-record interviews on the state of global growth and finance, AI advancements, powering global energy needs, and the forces reshaping the world economy.

Each session brings together the leaders and forces most directly shaping the global economy, with programming powered by Semafor’s world-class editorial and executive leadership.

Oct. 15 & 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | Request Invitation

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The Trump administration is finding alternate funding streams for key programs as it prepares for a prolonged shutdown. “[The Office of Management and Budget] is making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats’ intransigence,” one OMB official said. “Pay the troops, pay law enforcement, continue the RIFs, and wait.”

Playbook: After securing a major diplomatic win on Gaza, President Trump finally “got a Time magazine cover better than the ones he faked” — but he’s still not happy with the photo.

Axios: Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy are set to discuss whether the US should provide Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk missiles when the pair meet Friday. “There are certain issues that can’t be discussed on the phone,” a person familiar said.

White House

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