Principals

1. Fed decision today
2. New shutdown polling
3. GOP split on left crackdown
4. Kirk suspect charged
5. Trump’s UK state visit
6. Vaccine fight flares
7. Anthropic irks White House

PDB: Satisfaction with K-12 education in the US hits a record low

Vance in Michigan … Trump extends TikTok deadline to Dec. 16 … FT: China bans tech firms from buying Nvidia’s AI chips

What a Fed cut means for markets

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates today, starting the long, slow descent from a post-pandemic stance of dampening a hot economy that is now showing signs of cooling. Sophisticated investors are putting 96% odds on a 0.25 percentage-point cut to benchmark interest rates. Lower borrowing costs don’t immediately translate into pocketbook savings for American households, whose credit scores are falling at the fastest rate since the 2009 recession. They will, however, likely fuel stocks higher, especially riskier ones promising big artificial intelligence gains. “I wouldn’t want to be short tech going into this,” Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of $18 billion Westwood Management, told Semafor. However the market reacts, today’s Fed meeting takes place during unprecedented political pressure on the central bank and a fraying consensus that Chair Jerome Powell worked hard to keep together.

— Liz Hoffman

Dem voters want shutdown fight

Democrats have new polling to chew over as they rail against Republicans’ government funding bill. It’s unlikely to make them more eager to cave. A new survey from the progressive firm Data for Progress, shared first with Semafor, shows seven in 10 Democrats support their party withholding votes unless Republicans make changes, even if it risks a shutdown, while a similar share back their party taking a “firmer stand” than they did in March. What’s more, Democrats are arguing voters will blame the Republicans who control government for a shutdown, and the poll shows their voters share that view, 82-14. Large majorities of Democrats also think the party should fight President Donald Trump harder — even if they don’t win. House Republicans plan to vote this week on a short-term spending bill that would extend current funding levels through Nov. 21, with the Senate following suit.

— Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett

Republicans split over left crackdown

A week out from Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Republicans on the Hill are split over the Trump administration’s intent to go after left-leaning groups and political speech, David Weigel and Burgess Everett write. Most in the GOP are supportive of the administration’s threats to squeeze progressive and liberal groups, and to punish individuals who appear to celebrate Kirk’s killing. But a second bloc is reluctant to blame Democrats for the shooting and wary of attempting to define “hate speech,” as Attorney General Pam Bondi signaled plans to do. Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., didn’t criticize probes into “organized efforts of disruption and violence,” but called on elected officials to “bring down the” temperature. “I don’t want to see us turn into Europe, specifically the UK, where the government starts prosecuting people for things they say on social media,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said.

Kirk shooting suspect faces charges

The suspect in Kirk’s assassination will next face a judge on Sept. 29, after Utah prosecutors charged him with seven offenses, including aggravated murder, witness tampering, and obstruction of justice. Tyler Robinson appeared for a brief virtual court appearance Tuesday afternoon as a judge read the charges and set the next hearing date. Utah prosecutors said they plan to seek the death penalty. The document laying out the charges describes a text message Robinson sent after the shooting to his roommate, with whom he had a romantic relationship, in which he wrote that he “had enough” of Kirk’s “hatred.” He also told his roommate to delete incriminating texts and refuse to talk to the police, per the document (though the roommate has cooperated). In Washington, lawmakers on the House Judiciary Committee are preparing to query FBI Director Kash Patel on the investigation, following his Senate testimony.

Trump to get royal reception in UK

Trump’s historic second state visit to the UK is set to include lavish ceremonial events at Windsor Castle today to celebrate the 250th anniversary of America’s founding, with the king and queen among the royals expected to attend — even as roiling protests threaten to mar the festivities. The day is expected to see a flyover by the UK’s Red Arrows and US F-35 military jets, and a state banquet where Trump will be accompanied by top UK and US executives, many vowing billions in deals; British pharma giant GSK on Wednesday pledged to invest $30 billion in the US over five years. While the White House aims to deepen ties with a key American ally through a new tech pact, Trump is also expected to discuss thornier issues, like tariffs and the Ukraine war, during a meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starmer Thursday.

— Shelby Talcott

Vaccine debate returns to Hill

Ousted CDC chief Susan Monarez testifies before the Senate health committee today, putting Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy’s leadership under fresh scrutiny. Monarez plans to tell senators that Kennedy ordered her to get HHS political aides’ approval for CDC decisions — a departure from past policy, according to Bloomberg. Kennedy fired Monarez last month, soon after her confirmation, and later told senators she wasn’t “trustworthy.” But despite Trump’s support for Kennedy’s more polarizing moves, including the installation of vaccine skeptics on the CDC’s vaccine panel, several Republicans have raised questions about rolling back childhood and other vaccination standards. Health committee member Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, told Semafor that Chair Bill Cassidy, R-La., deserves “a lot of credit” for inviting testimony on the implications “for the public’s ability to have confidence in the recommendations of the CDC.”

— Elana Schor and Burgess Everett

Anthropic’s rules irk the White House

Anthropic’s refusal to allow its models to be used for some law enforcement purposes has angered an otherwise pro-AI White House, two senior officials told Semafor’s Reed Albergotti. The company recently declined requests by contractors working with federal law enforcement agencies because it refuses to allow its AI tools to be used for some tasks, including surveillance of US citizens, the officials said. They argued Anthropic is selectively enforcing its safety policies for political reasons. Other tech giants, like Google, have obliged the Trump administration, and Anthropic still works with the government, including the Department of Defense, on some things. But the standoff raises a thorny question, Reed writes: “How much should software providers be able to control how their products are used, particularly once they are sold into government agencies?” (Anthropic declined to comment.)

Blindspot: Discord and Pride

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: FBI Director Kash Patel told lawmakers that the bureau is investigating members of a Discord chat that included Charlie Kirk’s alleged shooter.

What the Right isn’t reading: President Trump told reporters he’d have “no problem” with ordering LGBTQ Pride flags removed in DC.

AI is set to transform the world, but who will control its direction? While the US debates AI regulation, the EU and China are already implementing frameworks that could shape the global AI landscape for decades. With tech giants racing toward artificial superintelligence, a question dominates: What safeguards will keep humanity in control?

Join Semafor Monday, Sept. 29 in Washington, DC as Semafor editors sit down with Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) to discuss the most critical policy challenge of our time.

Sept. 29, 2025 | Washington, DC | Request Invitation

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Democratic leaders are expected to offer their alternative to the Republicans’ stopgap funding bill later today, seeking to get negotiations moving as the government shutdown deadline looms.

Playbook: Former Trump strategist Steve Bannon said of the policy responses being considered in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s killing: “The biggest thing is to broaden the assassination investigation from a single murder to the broader conspiracy. If we are going to go to war, let’s go to war.”

Axios: Following Kirk’s assassination, White House and MAGA officials are looking at ways to integrate President Trump’s political operation with Kirk’s Turning Point movement to build on the late activist’s success with conservative-leaning youth. “We have four years to turn Trump voters into Republican voters,” a top Trump adviser said. “And a big part of that was Charlie.”

White House

• A top Chinese official said that the deal to orchestrate a TikTok sale would involve the US app still using a Chinese algorithm. — FT