Potential season-defining homestand arrives for Astros

With the most critical week of their season beginning Monday, what margin for error the Houston Astros created for themselves this summer is gone.

The Astros, who once led the AL West by seven games, started Monday in second place for the first time since June 3. In the middle of a three-team division race, their next six games could define their season. 

Entering Monday, the Astros sat a game behind the Seattle Mariners and two games ahead of the Texas Rangers. A three-game series against Texas starts Monday, followed by a three-game set against Seattle.

“We’ve just got to go and play playoff baseball now,” utilityman Mauricio Dubón said Sunday. “Playoffs start early for us.”

The importance of this homestand is evident. These questions loom as it begins: 

• Is there a fifth starter? Jason Alexander will start Monday’s opener against the Rangers. Cristian Javier lines up to pitch in the series. How will the Astros approach the other game? A bullpen game was effective in Atlanta but is a formula they have used just twice this season. Would they throw one in their most important series of the year to date? Or is it perhaps time for AJ Blubaugh, who has impressed in long relief outings, to get his chance to help an injury-depleted rotation? 

• What is Jose Altuve’s status? Altuve left Saturday’s game in Atlanta due to “right foot discomfort,” the Astros said, and did not play Sunday. He did not address reporters either day, leaving the nature of his ailment somewhat unclear. Manager Joe Espada said Altuve was still “pretty sore” Sunday. General manager Dana Brown told the team’s pregame radio show he expects Altuve would miss “two days tops” and return to the lineup no later than Tuesday. Houston’s opaqueness with injuries leaves some question about that.

• Can the offense sustain momentum? Two wins in Atlanta saw Houston’s lineup at its ideal, creating traffic on the bases and capitalizing with timely hits. It has done that sporadically since the trade deadline but struggled to harness consistency, especially at home. The Astros entered Sunday having scored the sixth-fewest runs in the majors since Aug. 1. Issues have been especially pronounced at home. In that span, their .214 average at home with men in scoring position ranked 28th and their .284 on-base percentage ranked last, per Baseball Savant. Correcting that in two crucial series at Daikin Park is key.

• Is Bryan Abreu back? Abreu did not appear in the Atlanta series. So his last outing was a bounce-back save in Toronto, which followed a blown save in a 10-inning loss and a four-outing stretch in which he allowed eight runs. The two upcoming series could be taut, if prior meetings are an indication, and if the Astros summon Abreu, it will most likely be to close the door. Abreu has allowed one run in four outings against Texas this year, but Seattle has been his nemesis. He has allowed six runs in 5 ⅔ innings against the Mariners.

• Might Isaac Paredes really return? Dana Brown made a somewhat surprising declaration on Sunday’s pregame show, raising the possibility of Isaac Paredes rejoining the Astros for the series against Seattle. Brown couched that it “may be a long shot” but said “we’re very hopeful” of the scenario. Paredes took live batting practice Saturday in West Palm Beach for the first time since his hamstring injury. His presence alone could boost Houston’s lineup, albeit raising further questions about how it would adjust with Paredes limited to DH. How feasible that is could become clearer in the next few days.

Matt Kawahara, Astros Beat Writer matt.kawahara@houstonchronicle.com

Photo by: Susan Barber, Cat DeLaura

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Up: Yainer Diaz

Overall, it has been an inconsistent season for Diaz. After posting a 128 OPS-plus in 2023 and hitting .299 with a .116 OPS-plus last year, Diaz entered Sunday with a .259 average and 94 OPS-plus in 130 games.

His past month has been more productive, however. Diaz had a .301/.337/.462 slash line over his past 25 games entering Sunday and finished 11-for-27 in his seven starts on the Astros’ 10-game road trip.

Diaz can collect hits in bunches. If he gets hot for the next two weeks, it would offer a timely spark for a Houston lineup that has struggled to sustain momentum since the trade deadline.

Worth noting, Diaz is 8-for-34 with two home runs against Rangers pitching this season. Seattle has been especially tough on him. Diaz is 4-for-31 with nine strikeouts against the Mariners’ staff this year.

Down: Jesús Sánchez

Sánchez has proven streaky since arriving from Miami at the trade deadline. He ended a 29 at-bat hitless streak with a five-hit game Aug. 21, the start of a 12-for-23 heater.

After that, Sánchez went 2-for-29 with 12 strikeouts over his next 10 games. He drew seven walks in that stretch but has mostly hit in the middle of the lineup, where run production is a higher priority.

Sánchez’s severe platoon splits continue to relegate him mostly to facing right-handed starters, and he was removed for a right-handed pinch-hitter against lefties late in several games on the road trip.

A poor defensive game in right field in Toronto added to what proved a tough road trip for Sánchez. The Astros are set to face a run of right-handed starters against Texas and Seattle, magnifying his role.

Quote of the Week

Called up after just 15 games at Triple-A, outfielder Zach Cole enjoyed one of the most productive major-league debuts in franchise history Friday. 

Cole went 3-for-4 with a home run and drove in four runs during the Astros’ 11-3 win in Atlanta. His four RBIs set a franchise record for an MLB debut, passing the previous mark of three set by John Paciorek in 1963. Three hits tied the franchise record, shared by James Mouton (1994), Kenny Lofton (1991) and Paciorek.

Cole, who homered on the first pitch he saw, became the fifth Astros player to hit a home run in his first MLB plate appearance and first since Mark Saccomanno on Sept. 8, 2008. The last player to have four or more RBIs in his MLB debut for any team was Jerar Encarnacion in 2022 for the Miami Marlins.

Top stories we're watching...

• In a tight division race, Houston is leaning on Hunter Brown, who's being given a longer leash in his starts and making early leads hold up.
• In the middle of a pennant race, the Astros called up rookie Zach Cole, who delivered in his debut to spark a struggling offense.
• Jayden Murray has retired 16 of the 17 hitters he's faced in three appearances as the Astros seek help for a bullpen battered by injuries.
• Luis Garcia exited in the second inning of his second start back from Tommy John surgery, a “devastating” sight that left a hole in Houston’s rotation.

Player spotlight

Framber Valdez’s start Sept. 7 at Texas, in the wake of his high-profile cross-up against the Yankees, was promising, as he threw a seven-inning quality start in a loss. Sunday, though, Valdez struggled again, allowing five runs in four-plus innings in Atlanta to continue a second-half decline.

Valdez has a 6.02 ERA over his past eight starts. The Astros have lost seven of those games, a stark pivot from this summer, when they won 13 consecutive games started by the left-hander.

Valdez is not getting swing-and-misses with his curveball and has been unable to prevent big innings on several occasions. His next start will be against Seattle. Regaining his typical form could be critical to not only that series but any hope Houston harbors of playing deep into October.

“It’s finding more consistency in quality of pitches so he can pitch ahead (and) use his weapons to get people out,” Espada said Sunday.