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| The Weekend Pitch |
| September 14, 2025 |
| Presented by Deloitte |
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| (Megan Woodard/PitchBook News) |
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Stelara was one of Johnson & Johnson's star vaccines not long ago, bringing in $11 billion in revenue in 2023. But since generic versions started entering the market earlier this year, Stelara sales have dropped by 43%.
Across the board, from J&J to Pfizer and Eli Lilly, the country's pharmaceutical giants are facing a patent cliff that could spur M&A as they move to fill out their pipelines and close revenue gaps. Analysts estimate some $180 billion in big pharma revenue is at risk by 2030. Pfizer alone has predicted a revenue loss of $17-18 billion by 2030 as a direct result of patent expirations of key drugs.
"It's a big, big problem for the big boys of our industry," said Ross Morton, managing partner at Nodenza Capital Partners, a venture firm focused on biotech.
I'm Rosie Bradbury, and this is The Weekend Pitch. You can reach me at rosie.bradbury@pitchbook.com or on X @_RosieBradbury.
Historically, patent cliffs have been a respite for slow M&A cycles. Pharmaceutical companies' own R&D is usually far from enough to generate the needed additional revenue, so they turn to acquisitions of smaller companies with newly- or nearly-approved drugs to satisfy their shareholders.
For VCs hungry for liquidity in a stalled IPO market and early-stage companies struggling to land financing, this patent cliff could be a game-changer. But they still face huge roadblocks. |
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| Liquidity pressures reshape the US exit market |
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Expansion-stage exits are showing renewed momentum in 2025, but capital realization is still lagging years of accumulated investment. The latest edition of Deloitte’s quarterly Road to Next series explores how liquidity conditions, sector trends, and regional shifts are redefining the exit landscape. Highlights include:
- Data on the widening investment-to-exit ratio and its implications for LPs and GPs
- Sector deep dives into manufacturing, AI, and SaaS, which are producing fewer but higher-value exits
- Regional insights into how secondary cities are making their mark alongside traditional hubs
Read it now |
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PE sentiment in the UK is on the upswing, with the total value of mega-deals (transactions worth over $1 billion) on pace to beat last year’s total. How much PE mega-deal value has been generated in the UK so far in 2025?
A) £34.4 billion
B) £40.7 billion
C) £38.8 billion
D) £31.3 billion
Find your answer at the bottom of The Weekend Pitch! |
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What's next for private credit?
Take the PitchBook LCD survey
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In today's competitive dealmaking landscape, the US private credit segment continues to battle with syndicated lenders for leveraged finance business. But with rates expected to drop and competition expected to increase, where will the markets take us during the rest of 2025 and beyond? Specifically:
- What headwinds might the market face?
- What factors could accelerate M&A activity?
- Will credit conditions improve or deteriorate?
We’d love to hear your thoughts regarding the future of this dynamic market. |
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3 bright spots in a stormy
fundraising environment
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Amid a challenging fundraising environment in private capital, bright spots in debt, real assets, and secondaries have emerged.
Fundraising activity faced headwinds through Q2 2025, with private equity and venture capital experiencing pressures and cautious LP allocations, our Q2 2025 Global Private Market Fundraising Report finds.
In contrast, real assets, secondaries and private debt fundraising looked healthy. Some high-profile, sizable funds in secondaries and infrastructure were key drivers of fundraising in their respective strategies. |
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| (Eugene Gologursky/Getty Images) |
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“The signal is being sent out there that, basically, it pays to violate the law, it pays to become an illegal monopolist.”
—Former FTC chair Lina Khan, at the annual Primary Venture Partners’ summit in New York City, commenting on recent legal decisions ruling that Google does not have to spin out its Chrome web browser. Read the dispatch from the event by PitchBook's Rosie Bradbury and Jessica Hamlin. |
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Keep an eye out for these insights and research reports coming out this week:
- Q2 2025 Robotics Vertical Snapshot
- Q2 2025 US PE Middle Market Report
- H1 2025 Greater China Private Capital Breakdown
- Q2 2025 Gaming Report
- Q2 2025 Foodtech Report
- Q3 2025 Quant Perspectives: VC
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