Balance of Power
A few months ago, European leaders weren’t even sure Donald Trump would stick with NATO. Now, as they head to Washington with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, they’re wondering what kind of security guarantees the US leader has in mind for Ukraine.
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Can the Europeans trust Donald Trump?

A few months ago, they weren’t even sure the US president would stick with NATO. Now, as they head to Washington to flank President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, they’re scratching their heads over what kind of security guarantees he has in mind for Ukraine.

Some leaders were hesitant about even going to the US capital. Then FOMO kicked in and now about half a dozen of them will be rolling in.

There is concern that Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy and primary interlocutor with Vladimir Putin, lacks a convincing grasp of the details. They will want clarity on what exactly the US is prepared to offer Kyiv and what Russia is OK with.

Europe’s strategy is premised on taking Trump at his word. They will do all they can to try and steer the conversations toward Ukraine’s security and away from the territorial concessions that Putin – and increasingly Trump – are demanding of Kyiv.

What they can’t work around though is the lack of trust. History tragically shows a peace deal on paper is worth nothing if counterparties won’t keep their word.

Putin’s track record speaks for itself. Talk of “land swaps” and Kremlin “concessions” are no such thing. Putin is demanding territory that he has failed to take militarily in return for not laying claim to land he says is Russian but has been unable to seize – and would take years to do so.

Moscow has proposed security guarantees before that would have needed consent from the Kremlin or Beijing for Kyiv to receive help.

Still, Trump seems to trust Putin. He committed to sanctioning Russia if it refused a ceasefire only to gaslight everyone away from that idea after meeting him.

European leaders appear powerless and dare not anger him. If they leave Washington without Trump berating them or Zelenskiy in front of the press, they may even thank him. Alberto Nardelli

Global Must Reads

Bolivian voters sent two pro-business candidates to a presidential-election runoff in October, ending two decades of almost-uninterrupted socialist rule and likely transforming the Latin American nation’s economic model and its relations with Washington. The vote took place amid fuel and food shortages and the steepest inflation in more than three decades, which caused months of unrest.

As Mexico City’s police chief in 2020, Omar García Harfuch narrowly survived an assassination attempt by hooded assassins. Now, as President Claudia Sheinbaum’s security minister, he’s charged with overseeing efforts to satisfy relentless US pressure to vanquish drug cartels and end fentanyl trafficking — or face punishing tariffs on Mexican goods.

García Harfuch delivers a security briefing with Sheinbaum in Mexico City last week. Photographer: Fred Ramos/Bloomberg

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets yesterday to protest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to expand military operations in the Gaza Strip, rather than attempt to negotiate an end to the nearly two-year war under which Hamas would free its remaining hostages. Qatar’s prime minister is meanwhile traveling to Egypt to discuss a possible Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Al Jazeera reported.

India expects consumption-tax cuts unveiled last week by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will boost the economy without widening the fiscal deficit, helping to offset the fallout from US tariffs on its exports that Trump has threatened to double to 50% by Aug. 27 to penalize the nation for buying Russian oil. In a column in the Financial Times today, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro called India’s purchases of Russian crude “opportunistic and deeply corrosive” of a global effort to isolate the Kremlin.

Hong Kong prosecutors began final arguments for convicting former media mogul Jimmy Lai on national-security charges in a case closely monitored by Western governments. They assert the septuagenarian — who has been detained since December 2020 — orchestrated a conspiracy to incite international sanctions against local and Chinese authorities. Meanwhile, Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Ted Hui said Australia granted him asylum more than four years after he left the city to evade similar charges.

The imminent end of a recovery in UK living standards is a potential moment of peril for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has hailed the recent strength of wage growth as a sign he is delivering on his pledge to make “working people” better off.

Pakistan is expected to face increased rainfall this month, officials warned, raising the risk of further flooding and landslides after recent flash floods claimed hundreds of lives across the South Asian nation and neighboring India.

Heavy rainfall in Lahore this month. Photographer: Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images

Spanish Premier Pedro Sánchez called for a nationwide pact to combat what he called an accelerating climate emergency, with wildfires raging in several regions of the country.

Beijing defended the actions of a Chinese company over its handling of a disaster at a mine in Zambia, while also appearing to lash out at the US after it raised its concerns about the incident.

Thousands of Ivorians rallied against incumbent leader Alassane Ouattara’s bid for a fourth term over the weekend, the second such demonstration in a week led by former President Laurent Gbagbo.

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Chart of the Day

Even after a recent rally, Chinese stock indexes have only just returned to levels seen in the aftermath of a dramatic bubble burst a decade ago. Instead of incentivizing consumers to spend, poor equity returns have nudged them toward saving. Created 35 years ago as a way for state-owned enterprises to channel household savings into building roads, ports and factories, exchanges have lacked a strong focus on delivering returns. That skew has spawned a host of problems, from an oversupply of shares to questionable post-listing practices, which continue to weigh on the $11 trillion market.

And Finally

Reclusive oil merchant Mohammad Riza Chalid is known in Indonesia as the “Gasoline Godfather” for his key role in importing billions of dollars of oil products, mostly from neighboring Singapore. He has long maintained high-level political ties but has become embroiled in an $18 billion probe into the country’s state-owned oil producer that has become a litmus test for President Prabowo Subianto’s anti-corruption drive.

Chalid in 2010. Photographer: Reno Esnir/Antara Foto

Thanks to the 33 people who answered Friday’s quiz and congratulations to Alexander Plenk, who was the first to correctly name Peru as the nation where four ex-presidents are now in jail at the same time.

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