What to know: By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin's (BTC) flirt with a record high $124,000 on Thursday was followed by a drop that led to it closing last weekend's CME gap at $117,600 after hotter-than-expected PPI inflation data and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s apparent flip-flop on bitcoin purchases for a strategic reserve.
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The gap occurs because CME hours for BTC futures don't match bitcoin's 24/7 trading. When the futures market is closed over the weekend, bitcoin's movements can create a discontinuity in prices on the CME chart. While filling the gap is a recurring pattern in market behavior, there's not guarantee it will take place.
Bitcoin has now set four all-time highs in 2025. Importantly, the magnitude of pullbacks following these peaks has been shrinking. After it hit $109,000 in January, BTC fell 30% to $76,000 by April. In May, the $112,000 high was followed by a 12% drop in June. July’s $123,000 peak led to a 9% decline. Most recently, August’s $124,000 high has so far seen only a 7% percent pullback, though we're only one day in. Looking ahead, Friday’s U.S. retail sales report is forecast at 0.7% month-over-month, which would mark the strongest reading since March. A stronger-than-expected number could further undermine expectations for a September rate cut.
Further out, attention turns to the end of August when $12 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire on Deribit. The majority of open call options are concentrated between the $120,000 and $124,000 strike prices, suggesting that if bitcoin trades near these levels, it would align with the positioning of many derivatives traders. Stay alert!
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Crypto -
Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
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Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
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Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at one trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens.
Macro -
Aug. 15: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss potential peace terms for the war in Ukraine.
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Aug. 15, 12 p.m.: Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases Q2 GDP growth data.
- GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.8%
- GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%
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Aug. 15, 4 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases June GDP YoY growth data.
- GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 4.7 vs. Prev. 2.67%
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Aug. 18, 6 p.m.: The Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador releases July producer price inflation data.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) - Aug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-market
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Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07
- Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12
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SoSoValue DAO is voting to allocate 5 million SOSO tokens for a Researcher Ecosystem Fund aimed at boosting top-tier crypto research through competitions and incentives, improving content quality, transparency and SOSO’s utility. Voting ends Aug. 18.
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Uniswap DAO is voting to allocate $540,000 in UNI over six months to as many as 15 top delegates, with up to $6,000 a month based on voting activity, community engagement, proposal authorship and holding 1,000+ UNI. Voting ends Aug. 18
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Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a Bitcoin Ben’s Crypto Club Las Vegas sponsorship: a $1,000/month corporate membership (logo on sponsor wall, team access, newsletter feature, one branded meetup/month) or a $5,000, 90-day Graffiti Wall mural with promo. Voting ends Aug. 23.
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Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.33% of its circulating supply worth $41.84 million.
- Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $18.12 million.
- Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $18.94 million.
- Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $49.95 million.
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Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.6 million.
- Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating supply worth $57.59 million.
- Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating supply worth $27.55 million.
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- Aug. 15: PublicAI (PUBLIC) launches on Bitget, Binance Alpha, KuCoin and LBank.
- Aug. 15: Pepecoin (PEP) launches on AscendEX.
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The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.
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Join us for this curated gathering that unites D.C.’s most important public officials with legal, policy and compliance leaders from the private sector to advance crypto standards and reform.
Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through August 31. |
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