By Gavin Maguire, Reuters Open Interest Energy Transition Columnist

Hello Power Up readers! Benchmark crude oil prices are holding near recent lows as traders and investors count down to Friday's U.S.-Russia summit on Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of "severe consequences" for Russia if it does not agree to peace, which could mean tougher sanctions on Russian energy products if talks deteriorate. That said, the fact that the two sides are meeting at all is being viewed as a sign that they’re willing to strike a deal, which oil trackers think could eventually bring higher volumes of Russian oil back onto already well-supplied global markets. Let's dig in to how the global oil markets are bracing for the talks, and more, below...

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World oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year and next as OPEC+ members further increase output and supply grows from outside the group, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

Supply will rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 2.1 million bpd previously forecast, the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report, and by a further 1.9 million bpd next year.

"The latest data show lacklustre demand across the major economies and, with consumer confidence still depressed, a sharp rebound appears remote," the agency said in the report that linked its higher output forecast to increased OPEC+ production targets. "Oil market balances look ever more bloated."

As if to underscore the dour tone from the IEA, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose last week by 3 million barrels - versus expectations of a small stocks draw - while U.S. stockpiles of distillates also rose by more than expected. 

Going forward, the upcoming talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be a key focus for oil watchers, as any warming in ties between Russia and the international community will be viewed as potentially bearish for oil markets while any deterioration in relations may herald further sanctions on Russian energy supplies. 

Keep track of the latest oil market action in the latest Reuters oil report here. 

Oil traders are bracing for higher oil supplies should U.S.-Russia talks go well for Moscow.

U.S. exports of LNG have scaled new highs so far this year, rising by over 20% from the same months in 2024 to cement the country's position as the world's largest supplier of the super-chilled fuel.

    Demand for U.S. natural gas has also climbed to record highs among commercial and industrial users, which has helped lift total U.S. gas consumption by the largest gas users by 5% from the year before to new all-time highs.
    Gas prices for all major consumers have also increased notably from 2024, but are still holding below previous records scaled around 2022-2023.
    Today's column tracks the key trends and data points covering the U.S. natural gas market so far this year and going forward.
As always, there's loads of charts: on gas export volumes, gas usage trends, gas prices and more. Click below to read it in full

The airline industry's clean jet fuel failures are discussed in this deeply-reported piece on the dour state of demand for sustainable aviation fuel among the world's top airlines.

India's drive to produce more ethanol is leading its farmers to switch away from growing oilseeds, undermining government efforts in the world's largest buyer of cooking oils to reduce costly imports.

The pace of new capacity of U.S. solar, wind and battery systems has slowed nationally and in key states this year, hurting clean energy sector sentiment. But climate trackers can take heart from the continued growth outside Texas and California.

India aims to allow private firms to mine, import and process uranium as part of plans to end a decades-old state monopoly over the nuclear sector and bring in billions of dollars to boost the industry, two government sources said.

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