Good morning. The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will make interest rate announcements today, a rare double-header from the central banks. That will be in focus, along with catching the lifestyle creep and more. But first, other news to watch:

Immigration: Temporary foreign workers may get more flexibility to move jobs as Ottawa eyes changes to program

Telecom: Bell alleges Telus salespeople sold illegal pirated TV service to poach its customers

Agriculture: Australian canola is poised to take a sizeable chunk of Canada’s market share in China

Technology: B.C. mushroom-picking robot maker 4AG raises $40-million, led by European funds

• Earnings today include: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, HSBC Holdings, Qualcomm, UBS, Rio Tinto, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Agnico Eagle Mines, Ford Motor, eBay, Hershey, Kraft Heinz, CGI, MGM Resorts, Paramount Group, Tourmaline Oil, Ivanhoe Mines, Alamos Gold, Capital Power, SSR Mining

Hi, I’m Matt Lundy, The Globe’s economics editor.

Don’t expect any fireworks on rates today, with both the BoC and Fed poised to leave borrowing costs unchanged. But still, there will be plenty to unpack later this morning – the BoC announcement is at 9:45 a.m. ET – and again in the afternoon, with the Fed decision landing at 2 p.m. ET.

Here are some things to watch:

Canada’s forecast

Back in April, the Bank of Canada abandoned setting a central economic forecast, opting instead for two “illustrative scenarios” – one in which there’s a lengthy global trade war, and one in which most tariffs are scrapped. (The global economy is nestled somewhere between those wildly different scenarios.)

It’s easy to see why the BoC ditched a central forecast: Under the Trump administration, trade policy has been chaotic and frequently changing. Good luck coming up with reliable estimates.

Will the Bank of Canada return to setting a central forecast today? It may be too early.

Canada is facing an Aug. 1 deadline to reach some sort of trade and security agreement with the U.S. and faces a threatened 35-per-cent tariff on imported goods that aren’t compliant with the North American trade pact, up from 25 per cent.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 50-per-cent tariff on copper imports, also starting Friday.

Even as the White House inks deals with trade partners, such as Japan and the European Union, trade policy with Canada is very much in flux. What’s clear, however, is that sizable tariffs are a feature of those deals. Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that a no-tariff deal is unlikely and that Aug. 1 may pass without an agreement.

Canada grew at a healthy clip – 2.2 per cent annualized – in the first quarter, but that reflected a rush of exports to the U.S. ahead of tariffs. Economists are expecting a sluggish second quarter with potentially no growth.

Timelines

Yes, the Bank of Canada and Fed should hold today. But analysts expect cuts later this year. Interest rate swaps, which capture market expectations of monetary policy, suggest the Fed will make one or two quarter-point cuts in 2025. Investors are less certain that the BoC will resume lowering interest rates, although several Bay Street economists think that will happen in the fall as the country sustains more tariff-induced damage.

The Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at 2.75 per cent for two consecutive meetings. The Fed has held its benchmark rate at a range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent since December.

Look for any hints from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem or Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on where they’re leaning for future meetings.

Inflation

Tariffs haven’t led to a wave of nasty inflation, as many economists predicted in the spring. But there are some tentative signs that higher prices are being passed on to consumers in tariff-sensitive areas, such as clothing and household appliances, and that inflation could heat up further as inventories are depleted.

There are plenty of unknowns on trade policy, but central bankers should offer some insights into how tariffs are filtering into the economy, including with pricing.

Trump watch