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Daily News Brief

July 15, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. President Donald Trump’s shift on the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as...

  • Tariff reactions from the EU and Mexico 
  • A threat to Israel’s ruling coalition
  • Trump’s $70 billion AI announcement
 
 

Top of the Agenda

Trump threatened Russia with sanctions yesterday and announced that European countries would buy billions of dollars worth of American weapons to send to Ukraine. It marked an abrupt shift in the president’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, which previously focused on pressuring Kyiv. Trump has reportedly become frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approach to peace talks.

 

The details.

  • NATO deal: Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte met yesterday in Washington to discuss the deal. Rutte said at a joint press conference that the allies paying for the U.S. weapons would include Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. 
  • Weapons: Trump said the weapons would include Patriot air defense batteries and interceptor missiles; the Pentagon later said the specifics were still being discussed. The U.S. ambassador to NATO declined to rule out providing offensive weapons. A Ukrainian official told NPR he was hopeful some of the systems could reach Ukraine within days.
  • Sanctions: Trump threatened Russia with 100 percent tariffs if it did not agree to a peace deal in fifty days. Russia does little trade with the United States but Trump also threatened secondary tariffs on countries that trade with Russia, which include U.S. allies. He did not endorse a bipartisan Senate bill that would impose sanctions and 500 percent secondary tariffs, saying yesterday “I’m not sure we need it.”

 

On the ground. 

  • Russia continued its strikes overnight; its defense ministry reported taking down sixty-six Ukrainian drones over southwestern Russia. The security council’s deputy chairman said Russia “didn’t care” about Trump’s threats, while a Kremlin spokesperson called Trump’s comments “very serious” and said Moscow would “need time to analyze.”  
  • In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a shakeup in government. He aims to replace his current prime minister Denys Shmyhal, who has served since 2020, with current Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, who helped negotiate a minerals deal with the Trump administration. 
 
 

“Putin’s rhetoric to the contrary notwithstanding, Russia’s reserves, both human and material, are not unlimited. He almost certainly understands that. The task facing the Trump administration is to convince Putin and the Russian elites that Ukraine and the West can outlast him, that the mounting costs of the war will outweigh any possible benefit, short-term or long-term, and that the longer the war continues, the worse Russia’s strategic predicament will become, as it is caught between a more united Europe and ever more powerful China.”

—CFR expert Thomas Graham

 

Securing Ukraine’s Future

Ukraine's President Zelenskiy meets with U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Kellogg, in Kyiv

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

At a recent CFR event, panelists including U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg discussed how Russia’s war in Ukraine could end. Watch video highlights.

 
 

Across the Globe

Netanyahu’s coalition in crisis. An ultra-Orthodox party in Israel announced yesterday that it would quit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition in protest of a bill limiting exemptions from military conscription, leaving him with only a one-seat majority in parliament. The party’s seven resignations go into effect tomorrow. It is unclear whether a second ultra-Orthodox party, which holds eleven seats, will follow; Netanyahu would lose his majority if so.

 

Iran snapback sanctions. France’s foreign minister said today in Brussels that, along with Germany and the United Kingdom, France would trigger a UN snapback mechanism to reimpose sanctions on Iran if nuclear talks do not restart by the end of August. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday that Tehran would respond with unspecified “appropriate and proportionate” measures if the mechanism was used; the spokesperson added that no date has been set for continued U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

 

Shaky Syria ceasefire. The country’s defense minister announced a ceasefire in the southern city of Sweida this morning, after violence killed dozens of people. The clashes began as sectarian fighting between Bedouin and Druze groups on Sunday; one local Druze leader has encouraged people to keep fighting. Syria deployed government forces to the area, and Israel later confirmed that it had bombed the Syrian forces.

 

EU trade warning. European Union (EU) trade ministers met in Brussels yesterday after Trump’s weekend threat of 30 percent tariffs on the bloc. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič warned after the meeting that there was a “big gap” between the EU and the United States positions to potentially bridge before Trump’s August 1 deadline; he had warned earlier that transatlantic trade would be “almost impossible” if the tariffs went into effect.

 

Mexico tariff response. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said yesterday that the United States could do more domestically to improve border security. In a letter over the weekend, Trump tied his threatened 30 percent tariff on Mexico to border issues. Sheinbaum expressed confidence that she and Trump would reach an agreement before August 1, but said any deal would not include bringing U.S. security forces to Mexico.

 

Trump AI announcement. The president will announce $70 billion in investments for artificial intelligence (AI) and energy today in Pennsylvania, an unnamed official told Bloomberg. It follows Trump’s April unveiling of $100 billion for AI data centers as his administration seeks to boost U.S. competition with China in the sector. Today, Trump will speak with Senator David McCormick (R-PA) at an inaugural summit in the state, which has become a presidential battleground in recent elections. Executives from companies including BlackRock, Exxon, and Palantir are expected to attend. 

 

Australia-China talks. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese President Xi Jinping met yesterday in Beijing to strengthen bilateral relations around trade, in spite of tensions over security and human rights. Calling their meeting “very constructive," this was Albanese’s second official visit to China since 2022. Albanese said he complained to Xi about Chinese naval exercises that in February had affected commercial air traffic. Xi did not press Albanese on their opposing views on Taiwan’s sovereignty.

 

India clean energy target. New Delhi said yesterday that 50 percent of its installed electricity capacity now comes from non-fossil fuel sources. It has beaten its 2030 target under the Paris Agreement by five years. The country’s renewable energy output has grown in the first half of this year by its fastest rate since 2022.

 

France “open” to Niger reparations. A letter from the office of France’s permanent representative to the United Nations, viewed by the Guardian, suggests that France is “open to bilateral dialogue” with Niger about reparations for descendants of a violent 1899 colonial campaign. The letter did not acknowledge responsibility.

 
 

A Timeline of U.S.-Mexico Relations

Presidents López Obrador and Biden talk on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.

Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Over the course of two hundred years, the United States and Mexico have developed rich diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties—but at times, they’ve clashed over borders, migration, trade, and an escalating drug war, CFR editors write in this timeline.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels to discuss Ukraine and Gaza.
  • Today, a Senate committee will hold a confirmation hearing for former Trump National Security Advisor Mike Waltz to be UN ambassador.
  • Tomorrow, South Africa will hold a G20 finance minister’s meeting in Durban.
  • Tomorrow, cyclists embark on the second half of the Tour de France in Toulouse. 
 
 

Where Does Trade Go From Here?

Why It Matters

Global trade tensions are boiling over and questions about the United States’ economic future are at the center of the debate. How have the current administration’s trade policies of today reshaped the global order of tomorrow?

Listen
 
 

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