| Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is campaigning for re-election by vowing to block Ukraine’s European Union accession and by railing against Brussels for its support for Kyiv. He also opposes a push to end Russian energy imports by 2027. That makes oil importer Mol’s plan to wean itself off Russian crude all the more unusual. The Budapest-based company said it’s studying a disused pipeline running from the Ukrainian port of Odesa to near the Polish border as a potential route to bring seaborne supplies. It links to the southern Druzhba line, where Russian oil still flows to Hungary thanks to a temporary exemption from an EU ban. There are physical as well as political obstacles. The Black Sea around Ukraine’s coastline has been heavily mined while Odesa itself has been shelled. Even if the war were to end, the diplomatic damage would also need repairing before major infrastructure investments. Mol’s idea is for the EU — which is withholding billions of euros in funding to Hungary because of concerns about rule of law in the country — to prioritize the Odesa project. That seems unlikely. Mol has its own agenda: It’s accused Croatian pipeline operator Janaf of overcharging it for oil via the Adriatic, the company’s only non-Russian source. Janaf has denied abusing its position, but an alternative might bring price competition. That could also be beneficial for Orban. His Fidesz party is trailing in the polls to a potent opposition force less than a year before an election, inflation is accelerating in part because of energy costs and efforts to avoid a recession are fragile at best. While it’s hard to see Brussels and Kyiv doing Orban’s bidding now, longer term the Odesa plan may just provide the incentive for a reset in relations. Orban is unlikely to make any concessions before the elections. His opponent has vowed to repair Hungary’s frayed EU ties. The pipeline plan might depend on it.  Mol, Hungary’s refiner, wants to diversify its sources of oil. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg | 
