Principals

1. Trump, Russia hawk?
2. Reconciliation, the sequel
3. Moreno rises
4. Crypto bill challenges
5. More tariff threats
6. Newsom in SC

PDB: Majority of Americans plan to resist using AI

Von der Leyen faces no confidence vote … Trump says 50% copper tariffs will take effect on Aug. 1 … Dow futures ⬇️ 0.20%

Inside Trump’s shifts on Russia and Ukraine

Donald Trump, Russia hawk? Maybe not yet, but the president is sounding more antagonistic towards Vladimir Putin — and Ukraine’s allies are hoping it translates into concrete results, Semafor’s Burgess Everett, Morgan Chalfant and Shelby Talcott report. The president is criticizing Putin, considering a new sanctions bill and overriding Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in releasing weapons to Ukraine. “That was just an administrative miss. I’m glad to see the president disagrees with Hegseth on it,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. The incident is leading to greater scrutiny of both Hegseth and Elbridge Colby, the top policy official at the Pentagon. Decision-making under Trump “largely ignores established processes,” one official said, which they said leads to faster calls and more “haphazard” situations. Trump’s harsher rhetoric on Putin is likely to influence Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later today.

GOP’s even bigger, more beautiful bill

Republicans still bruised from passing their spending bill are already looking to do it again — and recoup their losses. Lawmakers said this week they’d like a second package to include more spending cuts, more tax cuts, and even some of the provisions that were ruled ineligible by the Senate parliamentarian: “We should make another run at that, and look for ways to structure the provisions so that they’re more fundamentally budgetary,” House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington said. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., set a still loftier goal. “I’d like to see us draft a bill this time that … reflects sound policy as opposed to bribes to members of Congress,” he said. “Here’s one of the things I learned in the last reconciliation: In the real world, pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. Except in the United States Senate, pigs just get fatter.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Moreno joins whip team

Senate Republicans are reshaping their whip operation as they face another deadline-driven vote that will require party unity. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso is adding Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, to his team after Moreno shaped the Senate’s rollback of electric vehicle credits and narrowed the auto loan interest deduction in the megabill, Semafor’s Burgess Everett scooped. Moreno replaces retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., on the team. Barrasso said Moreno “worked nonstop for 27 hours to keep our conference united” during last week’s grueling vote-a-rama. The Senate will need that energy next week as it takes up the $9.4 billion recissions package from the House, with a tough procedural vote looming, potentially followed by amendment votes. “Hopefully we can get on it,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune. “It’s a vote-a-rama type process, which I’m sure you’re excited about.”

Crypto overhaul faces long haul

The House is slated to pass a dramatic overhaul of how agencies regulate cryptocurrency next week — but it could be a while until the Senate does the same. Lawmakers initially promised Trump they would pass the revamp, along with a separate bill governing stablecoins, by August. But Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee left a hearing Wednesday with outstanding questions that could take lawmakers months to answer — if not longer. “In terms of the Senate starting from scratch drafting a market structure bill, it makes no sense to me,” Kennedy told Semafor. He added that he doesn’t want crypto firms to have too much influence over the legislation: “I want industry’s contribution … but we let others, other prominent players on the internet, write their own bill before, and it didn’t turn out well.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump threatens tariffs on Brazil, others

Trump sent more letters threatening higher tariffs. The new levies he threatened to impose Wednesday would start at 20% for the Philippines and go as high as 50% for Brazil. Trump indicated that the latter is not negotiable, tying it directly to Brasília’s prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro (the US actually has a trade surplus with Brazil). There’s been no visible progress toward agreements since the president pushed back the deadline to Aug. 1 this week, and tariffs took center stage at Trump’s summit with African leaders on Wednesday. “We’re shifting from aid to trade,” he declared at that meeting. Some of the continent’s largest economies were absent from the gathering — like South Africa, which received a White House letter threatening a 30% tariff earlier this week. Trump has also sent confusing signals to Europe, which is hoping for a framework to evade higher tariffs next month.

Newsom rallies Democrats

California Gov. Gavin Newsom spent two busy days in South Carolina, urging Democrats to “end” the Trump presidency by winning the midterms, and dismissing questions about whether he’d run for president. “Our fixation with a guy or gal on a white horse to come save the day is a big, big mistake,” he said. Newsom told crowded rooms of Democrats not to get distracted by Trump, while acknowledging that ICE raids in Los Angeles had made them worried about the future of democracy. “I know that fear,” he said in Seneca on Wednesday. Newsom told Semafor that Democrats needed to be “aggressive” to ensure that Trump couldn’t shift the news cycle away from topics like Medicaid and tariffs. He got a fresh example as he left the state: The DOJ filed a long-expected lawsuit against California over its tolerance of transgender athletes in women’s sports.

— David Weigel

We are ramping up our investment in the Gulf: Matthew Martin — the veteran, stellar Bloomberg business and finance reporter — has joined Semafor as Saudi Arabia Bureau Chief and Global Head of Sovereign Wealth Fund Coverage. Martin brings deep expertise and sharp analysis to unpack money flows, and dive into Gulf wealth funds’ roles in revamping their economies and projecting soft power internationally, including in Africa and elsewhere. He’ll lead our growing team in Riyadh, which is focused not just on the region but its impact on the world beyond — from South Africa to Silicon Valley, and from Lagos to London.

Blindspot: Depositions and nominees

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Joe Biden’s White House doctor, Kevin O’Connor, refused to answer questions during a deposition with the House Oversight Committee as part of a Republican inquiry into the former president’s mental acuity.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Trump administration claimed many Jewish organizations supported his nominee to lead the Office of Special Counsel, Paul Ingrassia — but some of those groups said they hadn’t heard of him, CNN reported.

Young people are growing up online, but instead of feeling more connected, many feel isolated, anxious, and burned out. The constant pressure to keep up, fit in, and always be online is fueling a growing mental health crisis.

To better understand what’s driving this crisis, and how we as a society can address it, Semafor is hosting a conversation around youth wellbeing at The Gallup Building. Join Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala.; Sen. John Fetterman, D-Penn.; Carley Ruff; Senior Director of U. Government Relations, Habitat for Humanity; Mark Dalton, Senior Policy Director, Technology and Innovation, R Street; Sara DeWitt, Senior Vice President and General Manager of PBS KIDS; and more, as we explore the complex drivers of youth wellbeing and the impact of this crisis on multiple future generations.

July 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Ahead of a Senate Appropriation Committee markup today, senators don’t have an agreement on spending for the next fiscal year and there’s “no sense that they’ll be able to reach one.”

Playbook: European capitals are “far from convinced” that President Trump’s current disposition towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine will last.

Axios: Iowa Democrats are pushing to restore the state’s traditional place as the first presidential primary — with some arguing to do so even if the Democratic National Committee disagrees.

White House

• President Trump said that Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy will serve as interim NASA administrator, weeks after nixing the nomination of Elon Musk ally Jared Isaacman.

Congress

• House Speak