Dear friends and colleagues:
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated through July 8.
Of the major reserve-currency issuing central banks, only the ECB cut its policy rate last month: from 2.25% to 2%.
The Fed held steady at 4.38%, the PBoC at 3%, the BoJ at 0.5%, the BoE at 4.25%, the Bank of Canada at 2.75%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia at 3.85%.
As Canada has shifted to a neutral posture from an easing one, our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/ Tightening (+) rises slightly from -3.32/10 to -3.03/10: modest easing.
Signs point to a quiet summer on the monetary-policy front. All eyes will be on the Fed in September, when the markets currently assess a 60% chance of a rate cut.
Please be sure to check out our CFR Global Inflation Tracker, which covers nearly 200 countries over the past quarter century.
Sincerely,
