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What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

It's said that price is the best measure of appeal of any asset. To the dismay of bitcoin (BTC) bulls, the largest cryptocurrency's price hasn't gone anywhere in over 50 days, trading directionless above $100,000.

That stagnation has, unusually, eroded the call bias in long-term options. Risk reversals derived from Deribit-listed options expiring in June next year are nearly zero, indicating that calls (bullish) and puts (protective) are trading at similar levels. Historically, long-term risk reversals have tended to be positive, indicating a bias for calls.

"This [risk reversal] could easily go negative as BTC continues to see downside 'risk-off' volatility only," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email. "Continued institutional structural flows (sell the call, buy the protective put) can also help push this risk reversal negative long-term."

Speaking of institutional flows, analysts noted that consistent purchases by Strategy (MSTR) and other companies are failing to offset the general decline in spot demand for BTC. Blockchain analysis has recently indicated that long-term holding wallets are taking profits.

Some traders are focusing on next Tuesday's U.S. consumer price data after a decline in July Fed rate-cut odds following Friday's hotter-than-expected jobs report. Meanwhile, pop culture and politics have collided with crypto, as rapper Drake name-dropped bitcoin in his latest track and Elon Musk announced the formation of the America Party, which, he said, would embrace BTC.

"These aren’t just celebrity endorsements, they’re indicators of where the Overton window is shifting," Mena Theodorou, a co-founder at crypto exchange Coinstash, said in an email. "Crypto’s cultural relevance is clearly growing, and this kind of mainstream attention, whether from artists or entrepreneurs, tends to filter through to investor confidence over time."

In other news, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik and researcher Toni Wahrstätter proposed EIP-7983 to set a new gas limit for transactions on the blockchain. This is aimed at making it resilient to certain denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, improving stability and offering predictable transaction costs.

Russia introduced a national registry for cryptocurrency mining equipment, effective today to standardize the use of Bitcoin and Ethereum mining equipment and enhance compliance with regulations.

In traditional markets, oil prices dropped early Monday as OPEC increased production, but pared losses later due to a tight physical oil market. Stay alert!

The launch of StarGate, VeChain’s new staking platform, kicks off an exciting era of enhanced rewards and more attractive tokenomics for the real-world-proven blockchain. 

StarGate, part of the ‘VeChain Renaissance’ technical roadmap, delivers greatly enhanced staking APYs, while Renaissance introduces consensus upgrades, interoperability tools, and new features that make building on VeChain more rewarding than ever.

Key features and benefits of StarGate include:

Staking Nodes from as low as 10K $VET (~$200)

A massive 9.1% APY for certain Node types

Unique, secure NFT-based staking model

A 5.48 Billion $VTHO ($10+ Million) bonus pool for the first 6 months

Intuitive staking and reward claiming mechanics

StarGate is more than a staking program - it's the launch of a more decentralized, economically attractive era for stakers and builders alike. With thousands of new Nodes onboarded, VeChain welcomes a new generation of holders joining its mission to deliver the real-world potential of blockchain, and drive Web3 mainstream.

Visit StarGate to learn more.

Crypto

• July 9, 11 a.m.: The Isthmus hardfork activates on Celo (CELO) mainnet, an Ethereum layer-2 network, aligning its L2 stack with Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and improving scalability, interoperability and security through key Ethereum Improvement Proposals.
• July 14, 10 p.m.: Singapore High Court hearing on WazirX’s Scheme of Arrangement, marking a critical step in the exchange's restructuring after the $234 million hack on July 18, 2024.
• July 15: Alchemist (ALCH) staking update launches, allowing token holders to stake ALCH for access to advanced features, premium benefits, and ecosystem rewards, potentially boosting token utility and demand.
• July 15: Lynq is expected to launch its real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.

Macro

• July 7: Day 2 of 2 of the 17th BRICS Summit (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil).
• July 7: President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House to discuss finalizing a 60-day Gaza ceasefire and staged release of hostages held by Hamas.
• July 8, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases May retail sales data.
  • Retail Sales MoM Prev. -0.4%
  • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.8%
• July 9, 12:01 a.m.: End of the 90-day freeze on U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2. This marks the deadline for trade partners to finalize agreements to avoid higher duties. Treasury plans to notify countries that have yet to secure deals.
• July 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases June consumer price inflation data.
  • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.3%
  • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.06%
  • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.42%
• July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid hearing titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.
• July 9, 2 p.m.: Release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the June 17–18 meeting.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• None in the near future.

Governance Votes & Calls

Unlocks

Token Launches