Principals

1. Senate nears final BBB vote
2. Dems target State layoffs
3. No US stock exodus
4. Gaza ceasefire push
5. Transportation project reform
6. Allred runs again
7. GOP tests denaturalization

PDB: SCOTUS’ next term

Trump in Florida for opening of migrant detention center … Powell speaks at ECB retreat ... Trump suggests DOGE target Musk companies

Senate nears endgame on megabill

More than 20 hours into its unlimited vote-a-rama, the Senate is closing in on its endgame for President Donald Trump’s megabill, though it’s not clear what the final product will look like or which 50 Republicans will support it. The Senate hasn’t voted on Sen. Rick Scott’s, R-Fla., amendment that would dramatically cut future federal spending on Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion — a key ask for conservatives. It’s not clear where Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, or Susan Collins, R-Maine, will come down on the final bill; Collins’ amendment to raise taxes on very high earners to fund more hospital funding failed last night. Republicans could also scale back the debt increase to try and win over Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. In one decisive move, 99 senators voted this morning to remove a provision aimed at stopping states from regulating artificial intelligence.

— Burgess Everett

Dems press for more notice on State layoffs

The top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee wants to force the State Department to notify Congress and employees of upcoming layoffs well before they happen. A bill, led by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and shared first with Semafor, requires any foreign affairs agency planning so-called reductions in force, or RIFs, that affect more than 50 employees to submit explanations to both the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee 20 days before the cuts. The move comes in response to imminent cuts expected to hit the State Department. Shaheen said in a statement that the new legislation “is crucial to protecting America’s ability to respond to global threats.”

— Shelby Talcott

US assets are still attractive

Despite fears that Trump’s tariffs would spur a mass investor exodus from US stocks, there’s little evidence that narrative is still holding up, analysts said. US stocks, bonds, and other assets “remain attractive versus the rest of the world,” Morgan Stanley strategists said in a recent report. HSBC experts similarly noted that a previous surge of investments out of the US and into Europe seems to be slowing. And while the dollar has weakened this year, that’s not part of a “great rotation” away from US assets, an international central bank body said this week. Still, growing concerns over ballooning US debt stemming from Republicans’ megabill have made long-term US bonds less attractive, the Financial Times noted.

— J.D. Capelouto

Israeli officials plan DC blitz

Trump is renewing his push for a ceasefire in Gaza. Israeli strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer is in town for talks with Trump officials today, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning a White House visit next week. “It’s heartbreaking to see the images that have come out from both Israel and Gaza throughout this war, and the president wants to see it end,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday, following reports of more strikes in Gaza.

Trump also moved to dismantle sanctions on Syria, as part of his administration’s effort to persuade its new government to improve relations with Israel. “The way to entice them to get into the Abraham Accords is to make it fruitful for them on an economic basis, on a civilization basis, on a peace and prosperity basis,” one senior administration official told Politico.

The ‘abundance’ movement’s next front

A bipartisan group of House members is asking leaders of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee to “cut excessive red tape” when they reauthorize spending on surface transportation — like highways, rail and transit — set to lapse in 2026. “Unlocking America’s economic potential can be achieved by accelerating construction, eliminating unnecessary delays, and clearing the way for smarter, faster infrastructure investment,” Rep. Josh Harder, D-Calif., and 20 others wrote in a letter shared with Semafor. They cited fast-tracked permitting, elimination of redundancy, and expanded exemptions as examples. It’s an early glimpse at a new front for the so-called abundance movement, which has more Democrats joining Republicans in seeking to roll back regulations to spark growth. One of the letter’s signatories, Rep. Jake Auchincloss, D-Mass., described “abundance” recently as “an economic textbook for the Democratic Party [that] moves past the stale debate between government and business.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Allred launches Texas Senate bid

Former Rep. Colin Allred is launching a Senate bid in Texas, hoping to exploit a GOP primary in a state Democrats hope to turn blue in their uphill bid to capture the majority. Allred lost handily to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in 2024, but he is nonetheless one of Democrats’ best hopes. He met with former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Rep. Joaquin Castro and state Rep. James Talarico recently in a bid to sort out their primary. Democrats are hoping Attorney General Ken Paxton’s challenge to Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, might make the contest more competitive in a potential Democratic wave. Allred said his campaign will take aim at corruption — a clear shot at Paxton, who has faced several investigations over the years. A Senate Leadership Fund poll recently found Paxton ahead in a general election; Paxton is leading Cornyn in early primary polls.

— Burgess Everett

Will the GOP weaponize denaturalization?

The Trump administration is thinking about trying to void naturalized immigrants’ citizenship — potentially starting with New York City mayoral primary winner Zohran Mamdani, Semafor’s David Weigel writes. Asked Monday about Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles’ proposal to strip Mamdani, who was born in Uganda but became a citizen in 2018, of his legal status, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said it’s “something to be investigated.” The suggestion infuriated Democrats; Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., called it “racist bullsh*t.” But regardless of Mamdani’s fate — it remains to be seen whether the Department of Justice will actually go after him — GOP leaders are increasingly comfortable with revoking foreign nationals’ visas over their political beliefs or actions, and that may soon extend to citizens. The DOJ recently announced it will prioritize denaturalizing and removing migrants convicted of certain crimes.

Blindspot: Abraham Accords and insurance

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: President Trump said more nations have expressed interest in joining the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and a handful of Arab states during his first term, though he didn’t specify further.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Senate’s megabill would leave 11.8 million people uninsured by 2034, an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office found.

Can we reconnect a generation? A mental health crisis is gripping young people, with rates of depression, anxiety, and loneliness rising. As social bonds fray and digital life deepens isolation, experts are sounding the alarm and demanding action.

Join Semafor at The Gallup Building to hear from Daniel Zoltani, Executive Director of the Whole Foods Market Foundation; Sara DeWitt, Senior Vice President and General Manager of PBS KIDS; Mark Dalton, Senior Policy Director of Technology and Innovation at R Street; Stacey McDaniel, National Director of Strategy and Quality Practice for Anti-Hunger of YMCA; January Contreras, Former Assistant Secretary for the Administration for Children and Families, US Department of Health and Human Services; and Steve Bullock, Former Governor of Montana, as Semafor explores the complex drivers of youth wellbeing, highlighting opportunities to rebuild social ties, foster resilience, and develop lasting strategies to improve the mental health of young people.

July 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: In an ominous sign for the Senate megabill’s prospects, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, floated the idea of going back to a two-bill approach — a debate supposedly settled months ago.

Playbook: The Democrat health care advocacy group Protect Our Care is readying a seven-figure ad campaign attacking 10 vulnerable House Republicans who support the GOP’s megabill (assuming the Senate version passes the House).

Axios: Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., has raised $22 million since announcing his gubernatorial bid in Florida.

Congress