U.S.-China trade deal

The U.S. and China have reached an “understanding” on trade in which China will supply rare earth minerals to the U.S. and in return, “we’ll take down our countermeasures,” US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg.

Trump’s sons are considering a dynasty

Eric Trump told the FT that he or Donald Jr., Ivanka, or his wife Lara might continue their father’s legacy in politics. “I think I could do it,” Eric Trump said. “And by the way, I think other members of our family could do it too.”

Meta did not pay those guys $100 million

Lucas Beyer, one of three OpenAI researchers who lead Sam Altman’s Zurich office, said on X that they did not get paid $100 million to join Mark Zuckerberg’s company. “No, we did not get 100M sign-on, that's fake news,” he said.

Citi stock worth $100 a share, analyst says

Citi chief Jane Fraser has suffered months of negative headlines but yesterday she got some good news. Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala rated the stock a “buy” with a price target of $100, and said Fraser’s reforms are working. The stock closed last night at $84.37.

Two senior execs leave Tesla

Omead Afshar, head sales and operations in North America and Europe, and Jenna Ferrua, director of North American HR, have exited Tesla, following a tough period for the company: Q1 vehicle deliveries fell 13% and profit declined 71%.

Trump v the judges

The White House sued all 15 federal judges in Maryland for opposing his deportation program. The normal method for disputing a judicial ruling would be to appeal a decision. The suit thus puts the Trump Administration on a legal collision course with the judiciary over which branch of government has a superior level of power. 

New York real estate developers in panic over Mamdani

If Zohran Mamdani wins the NYC mayor’s race, it “would be the death penalty for the city,” Danny Fishman, CEO of Gaia Real Estate, told the WSJ. “And it would be the best thing to happen to Miami and Palm Beach since Covid.” Mamdani favors rent control, and New York’s property moguls are organizing to back almost anyone who might be able to beat him.

Bill Ackman makes a pledge

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is looking to bankroll a candidate who can take down Democratic frontrunner Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral election. He shared that he and his associates have “hundreds of millions of dollars” at the ready, and once they find the person for the job, “the funds will pour in.”

Not made in the USA

The Trump Organization is no longer claiming that its T1 phone will be made in the U.S., now opting instead for more vague descriptions of the product on its website like, “designed with American values in mind.” This switch up comes less than two weeks after the company announced its new brand.

• For the third day in a row, investors will be watching today to see if the S&P 500 can break its all-time record. The index closed at 6,141 yesterday, just a few points below its record high from February (6,144.15). S&P futures were up 0.24% this morning, priced at $6,209.50, above the index’s all-time high. Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.85% this morning in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.43% this morning. The major indexes in South Korea, Hong Kong and China all declined.

• EY-Parthenon on “tariff shock”: “What we’re witnessing is an economy temporarily buffered from the tariff shock by smart logistics maneuvers, proactive pricing strategies, and some foreign exporter concessions. These adaptations have bought time—but they are ultimately finite. As inventory buffers thin, bonded warehouse timelines expire, and cost absorption runs its course, price pressures are likely to surface more clearly in the second half of 2025. The resulting inflation reacceleration will erode demand, compounding the drag on real activity,” per Gregory Daco.
• Oxford Economics on the revised Q1 GDP number: “The decline in Q1 GDP was a touch more than previously thought, but the details are more troubling because of the downward revision to real final sales to domestic purchasers, the engine of the economy,” per Ryan Sweet.
• Macquarie on the “shadow” Fed: “Trump's desire to "shadow" the Fed using a designated replacement for Chair Jay Powell isn't a good way to promote the perceptions of integrity and autonomy in US policy-making and, by extension, that of the reserve currency status of the USD. Some of this narrative is seeping into perceptions of the USD and contributing to its sell-off this week,” per Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry.
• JPMorgan on retail stock traders: “After several muted weeks, retail activity picked up meaningfully as equities chased new all-time highs. As of Wednesday’s close, retail investors net bought $3.2B – marking a sharp reversal from last week’s lull and +0.8z above their 1Y average (vs. -0.5z last week). … Last week’s flow was almost entirely ETF-driven (+$3.6B),” per Emma Wu and team.

Can AI help America make stuff again? by Jeremy Kahn

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The decision t