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The last couple years have brought a series of unfortunate events to Iran's power in the Middle East and beyond. Hamas has been eroded, Hezbollah has been decimated, the Assad government has been overthrown, and highly targeted attacks by Israel within Iran's borders have been effective. This weakening of Iran's power, reputation, and ability to deter attacks may have led both Iran and Israel to this moment. With its proxies damaged, Iran accelerated its move toward a proven deterrent (a nuclear arsenal), and pressed by this new urgency and Iran's current weakness, Israel chose now to attack Iran's increasingly threatening nuclear program. Like everything related to the Middle East, this is a gross oversimplification, but it's an attempt to at least answer the question: Why now? Of course, the timing also has to do with who's in charge of Israel's top global ally. It will probably take a long time to unravel all the inner workings of Israel's attack and America's involvement (or lack thereof). Meanwhile, there are more immediate questions. How long will this go on? How will Iran respond (and how much of their ability to do so has been hindered)? And can global leaders stop this already shocking escalation from spiraling into a massive regional war? Graeme Wood in The Atlantic (Gift Article): Why Israel Struck Now: As Iran’s deterrence eroded, the risks of conflict climbed.
+ "Salami, who was 65, was known for taking a hardline stance against Iran's rivals, including Israel and the US. Just last month, he had warned that Tehran would 'open the gates of hell' if attacked by either country." Hossein Salami, Iran's Revolutionary Guards chief, killed by Israel.
+ "On Friday morning, President Trump, in a social-media post, wrote, 'I gave Iran a chance to make a deal' but 'they just couldn’t get it done.' He said the Israeli strikes were carried out because of Tehran’s intransigence and urged the Iranians to reach a deal 'before there is nothing left.'" It's unclear at this point whether the US gave the greenlight or if Trump is just playing catch-up and trying to distract from his lack of influence in the conflicts he promised to solve. Whether as part of a unified strategy or something else, it's clear that "U.S. negotiations with Iran aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program were widely seen as an important way to preserve regional peace. They ended up being the perfect cover for a surprise Israeli attack." WSJ (Gift Article): In Twist, U.S. Diplomacy Served as Cover for Israeli Surprise Attack.
+ "Israel’s assault was years in the making, the result of extensive intelligence gathering on Iran’s nuclear sites as well as on top military officials and scientists, according to three Israeli officials with knowledge of the operations." Many top officials in the military and in Iran's nuclear program were killed. The attacks on nuclear and other sites continue. The US is positioning warships to help Israel defend against Iranian attacks. More than 100 missiles have already been fired from Iran and some have already been intercepted over Jerusalem. Plumes of smoke have been seen over Tel Aviv. Here's the latest from the New York Times, BBC, and Times of Israel.
+ (Meanwhile, to put your own weird family dynamics into perspective, consider that Netanyahu’s son is getting married this weekend.)
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The Senate Floor
It's a sign of just how fast and crazy the 2025 news cycle has gotten that the story (accompanied by a video) of US Senator being forced to the ground and handcuffed by the FBI is barely still on the front pages of news sites a day after it happened. Sen. Alex Padilla was forcibly removed from a Homeland Security press conference led by DHS Secretary Kristi Noem in Los Angeles.
+ The event was sick and shocking. The spin that followed was just sick. The Manhandling of Alex Padilla Was a Red-Line Moment for America. "The essence of Trumpism is just this: Dig in the heel of the boot; step on the enemy’s neck; determine in any situation the action that would be appropriately small-ddemocratic, and then do the opposite—go intentionally overboard, do something that shocks and offends the democratic sensibility. And then lie about it and try to reverse reality—to convince America that it didn’t see what it just saw. That truth is not what it seems." (Unbelievably, this tactic seems to work again and again.)
+ Here's an interview with Padilla with his side of the story (which matches the video anyone can see and hear).
+ "Just a couple hours after a federal judge had ordered President Trump to relinquish control of the California National Guard saying he had violated the U.S. Constitution, an appeals court put the order on hold until a hearing on an appeal can be held Tuesday." (The original decision was clear and obvious. The stay was disappointing.) Appeals court blocks earlier ruling, allows Trump to command California Guard for now.
+ Meanwhile, "there are no policy changes under way to exempt farm, hotel and other leisure workers from Donald Trump's immigration crackdown, the Washington Post reported on Friday, a day after the U.S. president vowed to issue an order for such workers." (So who's in charge?)
+ "Infantry in Twentynine Palms are training at the Marine Corps’ premier live-fire base to destroy the enemy. Their tactics are geared to locate, close with and destroy the People’s Liberation Army or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, not Angelenos." Jake Auchincloss in WaPo (Gift Article): I’m a Marine. Trump is putting soldiers in an impossible position.
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Me, Myself, and AI
"The chatbot instructed him to give up sleeping pills and an anti-anxiety medication, and to increase his intake of ketamine, a dissociative anesthetic, which ChatGPT described as a 'temporary pattern liberator.' Mr. Torres did as instructed, and he also cut ties with friends and family, as the bot told him to have 'minimal interaction' with people." Kashmir Hill in the NYT (Gift Article): They Asked an A.I. Chatbot Questions. The Answers Sent Them Spiraling. "People who say they were drawn into ChatGPT conversations about conspiracies, cabals and claims of A.I. sentience include a sleepless mother with an 8-week-old baby, a federal employee whose job was on the DOGE chopping block and an A.I.-curious entrepreneur. When these people first reached out to me, they were convinced it was all true. Only upon later reflection did they realize that the seemingly authoritative system was a word-association machine that had pulled them into a quicksand of delusional thinking." (I'm old enough to remember when I was the internet's premiere word-association machine...)
+ NYT (Gift Article): Welcome to Campus. Here’s Your ChatGPT. "OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, has a plan to overhaul college education — by embedding its artificial intelligence tools in every facet of campus life." (All that will left of tradition college life will be fake IDs and kegstands.)
+ Want to sit back and think about this AI stuff for a minute? Forget it. The AI arms race is only accelerating. The Verge: Meta is paying $14 billion to catch up in the AI race.
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Weekend Whats
What to Movie: You need a light, quirky, musical, unique, feel-good movie to break up the weekend of intense news, protests, military parades, and your kids forgetting that its Father's Day (OK, maybe that's just my weekend). The Ballad of Wallis Island(on Peacock and elsewhere) is just the ticket.
+ What to Merch: My merch partner Cotton Bureau is celebrating their 12th anniversary with free shipping (use the code Happy12 at checkout). So this is the perfect time to score some NextDraft gear, from the logo Ts, to the Pro Democracy shirts, to the Fact Around and Find Out Tumbler. It's all in the NextDraft Store.
+ What to Doc: "Oscar-winning filmmaker Ahmir 'Questlove' Thompson directs his sophomore feature documentary follow-up to 'Summer of Soul.' SLY LIVES! (aka The Burden of Black Genius) examines the life and legacy of Sly & The Family Stone, the groundbreaking band led by the charismatic and enigmatic Sly Stone." Sly Lives is on Hulu.
+ What to Pod: Michelle Obama welcomed Bruce Springsteen to her podcast.
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Extra, Extra
Allow Me to Demonstrate: "Millions of people are expected to protest against the Trump administration on Saturday at roughly 2,000 sites nationwide in a demonstration dubbed 'No Kings', planned for the same day as the president’s military parade and birthday." (This movement was expected to be big before the National Guard was called in and before a US Senator was thrown to the floor and handcuffed.) Three big questions: How big with the protests be? How will law enforcement react? And will the major news orgs cover them. Margaret Sullivan: Why are the media ignoring growing resistance to Trump?
+ Vote For Those Who Want You to Vote: "A federal judge on Friday blocked President Donald Trump’s attempt to overhaul elections in the U.S., siding with a group of Democratic state attorneys general who challenged the effort as unconstitutional." With the moves by Trump polling at increasingly low levels, stopping these attempts to limit voting are even more vital.
+ Big Game: "Lobbyist Ches McDowell went from bear hunting with Donald Trump Jr. to Mar-a-Lago, and then to a prime perch in Washington." Billy Warden with an interesting look at how the other political lives (and thrives). The Thrill of the Hunt.
+ Stood Up: "Wit