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Today’s Agenda

Author’s Note

A London-bound Air India plane crashed into a residential area in Ahmedabad on Thursday, killing more than 200 people. As Bloomberg News’ Anthony Palazzo notes, the tragedy “has turned 2025 into one of the deadliest years in the past decade for civil aviation.” It will take weeks for investigators to issue a report on the events that led up to the crash. For now, I encourage you to head over to our live blog and to hug your people a little extra today.

Santacon for Hill Staffers

In honor of the president’s upcoming military parade-slash-birthday banger, Tim O’Brien took a trip down memory lane:

The last time I was a guest at Donald Trump’s birthday party, it was a relatively tame affair in the Crystal Ballroom of one of his sprawling, financially troubled Atlantic City casinos, the Castle. It was 1990, Trump was turning 44, and a replica of a jet from his failing airline, the Trump Shuttle, adorned a stage beside reproductions of three sagging casinos he had also mismanaged … Trump gave a rambling speech that included blaming the media for his myriad personal and professional woes. “Some would say there’s a method to my madness,” he told the audience, which included his father and mentor, Fred. “Well, I have a few surprises ahead.”

Just a few? He was being uncharacteristically modest! I think it’s safe to say that, in the 35 years since he said that, Trump has given America and the world more than our fair share of surprises. (And I’m not even counting the secret flute career.) And yet, to the shock of no one, he’s making the US Army’s 250th anniversary all about himself.

On Saturday, the president will mark his 79th birthday in Washington with a celebration that could cost up to $45 million. It promises to be a glitzy, taxpayer-fueled affair, complete with tanks, combat vehicles, self-propelled howitzers, a World War II-era bomber and a bunch of other deadly weapons of war that my newsletter comrade Tobin Harshaw could name in his sleep. “The birthday flex also reportedly includes scores of aircraft and at least 6,600 soldiers. Fireworks, parachutists, concerts and a fitness contest are scheduled for the National Mall and elsewhere,” Tim writes. It sounds like Santacon for Hill staffers — my personal nightmare. [1]

One wonders how Trump found the time to organize such an elaborate bash given his busy schedule. There’s his public divorce with Elon Musk, which Thomas Black says may imperil national security. Then there’s his China trade deal negotiations, which Hal Brands says must “preserve American’s technological advantage.” And don’t forget about the troops he has stationed in Los Angeles, which Noah Feldman says are a threat to democracy.

“The president enjoys political theater as much as birthday parties, and he’s more than happy to turn a blue state and a blue city into piñatas if it serves his electoral needs and expands his reach and power,” writes Tim.

Piñatas? Tacos? Why does Trump need a parade when he has a fiesta already? Read the whole thing for free.

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A Hollywood Budget in Hiroshima

Elsewhere in questionable uses of taxpayer dollars, you have this three-minute video of Tulsi Gabbard warning of nuclear Armageddon. I imagine it cost a small fortune to make, what with the bomb simulations, the special-effect flames that engulf the Golden Gate Bridge, the ominous background music that sounds like the Hunger Games had a baby with the Last of Us soundtrack, and the HD footage of her looking wistfully out at the mountains.

More bizarre than the overproduced vibes are her words, which warn of “radioactive poison spreading from the air, water and soil” and a nuclear winter “plunging the world into darkness and cold, killing crops and starving billions.” She follows that up with an outlandish claim about global elites and warmongers having five-star nuclear bunkers that can protect them while their megayachts and sports cars disintegrate.

Marc Champion was rather unimpressed by her grade-school epiphany about the dangers of nuclear war: “As the principal intelligence adviser to the world’s most powerful man, Gabbard can access vast quantities of information,” he writes. “It’s concerning that she offered no facts, let alone revelations, to support her case or justify making it now. When she wasn’t describing the horrors of nuclear fallout, she was just parroting Kremlin propaganda.”

I’m sure Vladimir Putin was just chuffed by that. The Russian president is loaded with nukes, as is is his not-so-new BFF Kim Jong Un. “Gabbard’s intervention makes for terrible policy,” Marc concludes.

Bonus Terrible Policy Reading:

  • Ted Cruz wants the Federal Reserve to stop paying interest to banks to save taxpayers money — an alarming proposal that is sure to backfire. — Jonathan Levin
  • As painful as it may be, Republicans should create a smoother on-ramp to the ACA to minimize coverage losses from Medicaid. — Bloomberg editorial board

Telltale IPO Charts

Monzo, Klarna and Revolut are all planning initial public offerings that will launch in the next year or two. “One specializes in gathering money, another in lending it and a third in moving it around — but which of these three fast-growing fintechs offers the most compelling story to potential public investors?” asks Paul J. Davies. Read his column to find out.

One week ago today, Circle — a well-known stablecoin issuer — had its IPO. To say things are going smoothly would be an understatement. Lionel Laurent says the crypto giant “has tripled in value since going public and is worth $23.6 billion (or 150 times last year’s earnings).” From his perch in Paris, however, Lionel observes that the EU is  less excited: “Officials fear virtual currencies are a serious financial threat for the continent and an extension of Trump’s ambitions of bringing global trade to heel. And they may be right to worry,” he writes.

Further Reading

Oil is about to have another lost decade. — David Fickling

Five months makes a meaningful trend, and the Fed has that with inflation. — Allison Schrager

The death of public schools feels near, but vouchers aren’t the reason. — Abby McCloskey

Prop trading firms are becoming hedge funds, and vice versa. — Matt Levine

With friends like Brazil, OPEC+ doesn’t need enemies. — Javier Blas

Harvard and Yale will finally lift the veil on private assets. — Nir Kaissar

ICYMI

ICE raids send Latino shoppers into hiding.

Vibe coding comes for engineering jobs.

Natural disasters may shape babies’ brains.

Wall Street tackles the boatyard.

Kickers

Pope Leo’s family tree.

Love on the spectrum, IRL.

Gen Z hates the grid.

Climate change changes cheese.

Notes: Please send gruyère and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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[1] In an ironic twist, I — hater of crowds, lover of peace and quiet — am visiting a friend in DC this weekend. I'm cursing myself for not adding the president's birthday to my iCloud calendar.

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