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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.

US President Donald Trump’s move to effectively ban Harvard University from enrolling international students may seem like a problem contained to one elite institution. 

But the effects are likely to ricochet globally for many years to come — and China could reap the benefit.

The decision to revoke the school’s Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification injects uncertainty for current and prospective international students attending US colleges, a dynamic that was already playing out with the administration’s anti-immigrant push. 

The Harvard University seal on campus in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Photographer: Mel Musto/Bloomberg

If you’re facing onerous fees — international students often pay three or four times the domestic rate — you want certainty that the university won’t kick you out just before you graduate. And if it can happen to Harvard, the oldest college in the US, it can surely happen to others across the country.

The assault on a beacon of US education ostensibly in the name of tackling anti-semitism is the latest move that erodes the nation’s soft power globally. The administration has cut funding or dissolved institutions including USAID, Voice of America and Radio Free Asia.

Other universities in the US and internationally are likely to capitalize on Harvard’s plight, snatching the smartest minds — dozens of Nobel laureates attended or taught at the school. Hong Kong University of Science and Technology has already offered to unconditionally accept Harvard students.

In China, President Xi Jinping aims to attract 50,000 American students for foreign-exchange programs over a five-year period, a program he announced two years ago alongside President Joe Biden during a visit to Washington.

That followed a State Department decision made in 2020 during Trump’s first-term to terminate five cultural-exchange programs from China, accusing them of propaganda.

Five years on, thousands of international students at Harvard are suddenly left to deal with the life-changing repercussions of the Trump administration’s latest clash with US educators. 

For the best and brightest, the prospects of accepting a Chinese welcome may have just become that bit more appealing. Katia Dmitrieva

Harvard University merchandise in a store window across from campus. Photographer: Sophie Park/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

While Trump put down an 11th-hour rebellion by conservatives over spending to pass his “one big, beautiful bill” in the House, he may have to reckon with an even more demanding constituency to get it through the Senate. Customers for the ballooning amount of US debt are injecting a dose of harsh economic reality into his fiscal policy, with the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds again surpassing the 5% mark.

Trump initiated a phone call with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and discussed tariffs in general terms, just as Tokyo’s top negotiator left for the US for another round of trade talks. The discussion was the first between the two leaders since early April when the US ramped up its levies against countries around the world and signals the Asian nation still has the attention of the US president.

US and European leaders are placing their hopes in the Vatican to engage Russia and Ukraine in peace negotiations, though sources say the Kremlin has no plans for President Vladimir Putin to travel to Rome or anywhere else for talks currently. Ukraine is meanwhile reengineering its energy grid to be less vulnerable to Russian attacks that officials in Kyiv estimate have caused $93 billion of damage since the war began.

In Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, there’s hardly any sign that parliamentary and regional elections will take place on Sunday, which suits President Nicolás Maduro in his drive to further cement his grip on the nation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a post on X that a Venezuela oil-export license will expire on Tuesday, defying earlier expectations it would be extended and impacting Chevron’s operations in the sanctioned economy.

Pro-government supporters march during an International Workers’ Day event in Caracas on May 1. Photographer: Ivan McGregor/Anadolu/Getty Images

The India-Pakistan conflict risked spiraling into nuclear war at one point until the US and other nations raced to calm things down, eventually producing a ceasefire. As this essay explains, the fighting provided further evidence that the space between conventional and nuclear war is narrowing in the world, as a confluence of factors ramps up pressure on geopolitical fault lines, from Israel to Korea, Taiwan and Kashmir.

While the Trump administration maintains that it’s interested in Africa, especially its minerals, Washington’s actions have harmed its ambition of weakening China’s status as partner of choice for the continent.

Keir Starmer is at odds with his chief of staff over whether to scrap a two-child cap on benefits, sources say, a costly policy move that the British prime minister is under pressure to make after bruising local election results.

Spain’s government is pushing ahead with a controversial proposal to hit non-European Union residents with a 100% tax when buying homes, as it seeks to tackle a brewing housing crisis.

French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to deepen economic ties with China as the EU adjusts to the twin shocks of the American trade war and the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Chart of the Day

Lithium has become a lifeline for Yichun in Jiangxi, historically one of China’s poorest provinces, after the surging popularity of electric vehicles transformed the once-threadbare area into the country’s lithium mining capital. Since the metal’s peak in 2022, though, when migrants flocked to this city in central China, the benchmark price has plummeted nearly 90%. And yet the digging continues in a relentless push for China’s self-reliance, a goal that’s grown in importance with Trump’s unleashing of a global trade war.

And Finally

Moscow’s metro system has unveiled a replica of a Soviet-era monument to Josef Stalin in one of its central stations, the latest example of Russia’s gradual rehabilitation of the dictator who oversaw the imprisonment and deaths of millions in forced labor camps during an era of mass repression. The life-sized wall sculpture in the Taganskaya station depicts Stalin surrounded by adoring citizens. It’s called “Gratitude of the People to the Leader-Commander” and dedicated to the victory in World War II, according to a statement from the transportation system.

The Stalin monument at Moscow’s Taganskaya metro station. Photographer: Alexander Nemenov/Getty Images

Pop quiz (no cheating!). The prime minister of which country hailed a “landmark deal” with the EU that he billed as a reset moment for relations? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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