| Through much of 2024, UnitedHealth Group was flying high. The largest US health insurer by membership had posted years of double-digit revenue growth. Its shares hit a record high in November. But cracks began to show in October that year when the company posted a rare outlook miss due to rising medical costs and tougher federal Medicare reimbursements. In December, the shocking shooting death of the head of its insurance unit unleashed a wave of vitriol against the company over slow-walking and denying claims. Through all of this, Wall Street analysts stuck with their calls to buy or hold the stock, and many investors did. Most of them have a “set it and forget it” mentality, Mike Taylor, lead portfolio manager of the Simplify Health Care ETF, told me. This is because the company had been well run and it holds a significant position in most health-care indices. Yet Paige Meyer saw lots to be worried about. UnitedHealth was facing rising costs, there were reports of a civil investigation into its Medicare billing practices and the Trump administration was talking about cutting federal insurance program costs. The CFRA analyst downgraded the company to “sell” on February 21. At the time, Meyer was the only analyst out of 30 tracked by Bloomberg with a negative view of the company. “I feel fortunate that I had the courage to make that call,” Meyer said in an interview. “It’s hard to go against the grain.” Since then, UnitedHealth’s stock has plunged 40%. The company cut and then suspended its annual forecast, replaced CEO Andrew Witty and is now reportedly facing a criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. (The company said it hadn’t been notified of the probe and stood by its practices.) Last week, UnitedHealth brought back former CEO Stephen Hemsley to save the health conglomerate he built. Read More: The Man Who Built UnitedHealth Into an Industry Giant Now Has to Turn It Around So why didn’t other stock advisers act on the same dark clouds Meyer saw? I reported here on some of the factors. Some on Wall Street believe analysts are reluctant to criticize the companies they cover and risk losing access to management. And there are those who think UnitedHealth will be able to fix things next year. But the real takeaway is that it’s hard to be Cassandra on Wall Street. — Angel Adegbesan | 
