The European Union was expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, as it aims to inject momentum in talks with President Donald Trump’s administration amid lingering skepticism that a transatlantic deal can be reached.

We’re told the new paper includes proposals that take into account US interests, including international labor rights, environmental standards, economic security and gradually reducing tariffs to zero on both sides for non-sensitive agricultural products as well as industrial goods. The paper also outlines mutual investments and strategic procurement in energy, artificial intelligence and digital connectivity.

The EU aims to cooperate with the US and is seeking a balanced and mutually beneficial deal, we are told. At the same time, it’s moving forward with preparing countermeasures, including plans to hit €95 billion ($108 billion) of American exports with additional tariffs, if negotiations fail to produce a satisfactory outcome. The two sides intend to meet at a political level early next month. — Caroline Alexander

What You Need to Know Today

Russian forces in Ukraine have made only small territorial gains this year amid steady resistance from Kyiv’s military, undercutting President Vladimir Putin’s assertions that his army has gained the upper hand in the war. Battlefield data indicate that — despite an advantage in manpower and steady gains — Putin’s military has fallen far short of satisfying his war aims. The pace of Russia’s main advance in eastern Ukraine has halved since the start of the year compared with a similar period through the end of 2024, according to data compiled by the DeepState open-source mapping service. 

Oil jumped following a CNN report that new US intelligence suggests Israel is thinking about a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Oil has been volatile on mixed headlines about the fate of Iran-US nuclear talks, which could pave the way for more barrels to return to a market expected to be oversupplied later this year. An Israeli attack would hinder any progress in those negotiations and add to unrest in the region, which supplies about a third of the world’s crude. 

The European Central Bank warned investor concern over the riskiness of US assets following Trump’s tariff drive could further jolt the world’s financial system. The “atypical shifts” away from traditional havens like the dollar and US Treasuries after April’s trade announcements may point to a “fundamental regime change,” the ECB said. That raises the danger of “broader shifts in global capital flows,” that would have “potentially far-reaching consequences for the global financial system.” 

JPMorgan Chase created a unit aimed at guiding clients through geopolitical risk, which Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon says dwarfs any other concern throughout his career. The biggest US bank launched its “Center for Geopolitics” with research on Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East and global rearmament. Further reports will be released quarterly, with plans to cover issues including populism and AI. 

Jamie Dimon Photographer: Cyril Marcilhacy/Bloomberg

Germany’s economy will stagnate this year, though a recovery is in sight next year thanks to plans to ramp up government spending. GDP is set to be unchanged in 2025, which would mark an unprecedented third straight year without growth, with Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warning another contraction is possible depending on Trump’s trade levies. While tariffs are suspended for talks, Germany is seen as particularly vulnerable and remains subject to sectoral measures on things like cars.

Marks & Spencer is facing a hit of £300 million ($403 million) to operating profit this fiscal year from a cyberattack that’s still disrupting sales and operations. A cybercrime gang known as “DragonForce” has taken credit for the hack, as well as other attempts to infiltrate grocer Co-op and luxury department store Harrods. The group told us it carried out the attacks with partners to extort money from victims and plans to hit the UK retail sector again, saying the breaches were “just a start.”

European officials are weighing how to respond to US efforts to thwart local DEI programs, as the two regions come closer to clashing over anti-discrimination policies. US embassies across Europe have been sending letters to companies and public offices doing business with the American government, demanding they certify that they don’t have diversity, equity and inclusion programs that violate US law now that Trump is in the White House. DEI issues are enshrined in European law.

Southwest of Johannesburg, one of the southern hemisphere’s biggest agricultural shows is underway. Private planes land daily during the event, where million-dollar tractors are for sale. It’s a key date for commercial farmers — mostly White Afrikaners, the minority that Trump has offered refugee status, saying they’re victims of genocide and are having their land seized. The accusation, widely dismissed as a conspiracy theory, has united South Africa’s fractious, multi-racial ruling coalition and drawn criticism in a country that overcame apartheid, but remains scarred by it. 

With 377 airplanes and 69 helicopters landing over the four days, the skies were as busy as the showgrounds at the Nampo Harvest Day this month. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg

What You’ll Need to Know Tomorrow

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Matt LaBrot worked as a sales manager for six years until he spoke up against Elon Musk. Now he tells his story in this week’s episode of Elon, Inc. Listen and subscribe to Elon, Inc. on Apple, Spotify, iHeart and the Bloomberg Terminal.

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