Exclusive: Trump’s Losing the Latino Voters He Won in ’24

DONALD TRUMP’S SUPPORT AMONG LATINO VOTERS, including those who voted for him in 2024, is fracturing, a new poll shared exclusively with The Bulwark found.

The poll by Equis Research, a Democratic group, conducted in conjunction with Data for Progress, showed that 66 percent of Latino voters believe Trump’s deportation actions “are going too far and targeting the types of immigrants who strengthen our nation.”

Critically, that figure included 36 percent of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024.

A sizable minority of respondents—29 percent—view Trump’s actions as “good and fair,” agreeing with the statement “if some people who are not criminals suffer because of it, it’s the price to pay to ensure our safety.”

And the most interesting data point: Among voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020 but moved to Trump last year—the category Equis calls “Biden defectors”—64 percent said Trump has gone too far on mass deportation.

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Equis says the poll, conducted between April 16 and May 5, is consistent with its findings this year that Trump’s newest voters “expected him to focus narrowly on the deportation of criminals and recent border-crossers” and largely did not support broader mass deportation efforts.

The weighted poll of 2,500 Latino registered voters included 44 percent who said they voted for Trump in November, which comports with exit poll and VoteCast data indicating how Hispanics voted.

Carlos Odio, the cofounder of Equis, told The Bulwark the poll represents “cracks” but not a total “collapse” in Trump’s Hispanic support—but he stressed that these voters’ dissatisfaction with immigration policy is just part of a set of larger complaints about the second Trump administration. Just 38 percent of those polled approve of Trump’s performance so far, compared with 60 percent who disapprove.

Those numbers are worse than Trump’s standing among the overall electorate, according to polling averages. And the reason is that Trump supporters in this cohort are more likely than Trump supporters in general to be dissatisfied with his performance. “In all,” reports Equis, “some 15 percent of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 currently disapprove of his performance in office.”

“The economy is the lead actor, but immigration is playing an important supporting role,” Odio said. Trump’s net approval rating on the economy, according to the poll, is -26, whereas his overall net approval rating is -22. There was also a huge 22-point swing downward among young Latino men, who were a strength for Trump just six months ago.

As I reported recently, based on exclusive access I was given to focus groups, Trump’s support among Hispanics has taken a hit largely due to their views of his stewardship of the economy. But the Equis data reaffirms that immigration is also a powerful issue negatively affecting their impressions of his presidency.

An Opportunity for Democrats—If They Can Seize It

While Trump’s numbers continue to drop, Odio said what is driving concern among Latinos is their belief that the president is unfairly punishing otherwise law-abiding people and their families. But that doesn’t mean that they’re ready to run to the Democrats. Among Latinos who disapprove of Trump’s mass deportations, 25 percent say they still don’t support either party on immigration and 20 percent don’t prefer either party generally.

The Democratic party is still sorting out what its message is going to be and how it’s going to communicate it.¹

But more recently, we’ve seen high-profile efforts to put a spotlight on the issue of immigration. Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), and Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) traveled to Mexico last week to meet with the family of an 11-year-old U.S. citizen who was deported along with her parents despite her being in recovery from treatment for a rare brain tumor. The girl was among four U.S.-citizen kids deported with their undocumented parents at the outset of Trump’s presidency. More recently, a mother was deported to Honduras with her two U.S.-citizen children, including one with stage IV cancer.

“I’m trying to protect people’s rights so they can live their lives and pursue the American Dream,” Rep. Castro told me. “When you have people getting snatched off the street by masked men who don’t want to identify themselves, including U.S. citizens, that’s a threat to people everywhere, and the Hispanic community is bearing the harsh brunt of these policies.”

A day before those lawmakers traveled to Mexico, ICE agents arrested Newark Mayor Ras Baraka outside a New Jersey ICE detention facility as he joined three House Democrats in an effort to provide oversight of the facility. The acting head of ICE later confirmed that members of Congress are legally allowed to provide oversight of ICE facilities, even unannounced. And the New York Times reported that Baraka was arrested “in a public area outside the front entrance gates of the facility.” He was released later that day.

Video from the scene also shows ICE agents physically confronting two New Jersey congresswomen, Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman and LaMonica McIver. Another New Jerseyan present at t