Donald Trump will mark his 100th day in office this week having upended the global trading system, provoked the specter of looming recessions for the US and world economies, and undermined the long-standing roles of the dollar and US Treasuries as safe havens. All these things are likely to cast a shadow over the next 100 days and beyond.

It’s all been done in the name of what Trump insists is a needed grand rebalancing of the global economy in America’s favor. The president’s promise is that the tariffs intentionally causing the disruption will lead to deals with dozens of other economies and a wave of new investment and rebirth in American industry.

Yet what’s becoming increasingly clear is that the US is largely in a negotiation with itself. And that it’s one in which the goal remains erecting the highest tariff wall the US has seen in a century or more.

Read More: South Korea Rules Out Chance of Trade Deal With US Before June Election

Trump isn’t really negotiating with the world. He’s trying to win over both US financial markets and American voters as he’s aiming in real time to test their red lines. He’s pursuing, to tweak the cliché, the abstract art of the unilateral deal.

The need the Trump administration feels to cajole Wall Street was evident last week in comments he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made on China. There was little substance to them and no accompanying action. The message welcomed by markets was simply a vague one — that some day there would be a deal between the world’s two largest economies. Even if the US and China can’t publicly agree whether they are talking or not.

India Talks

Trump and his advisers have hinted at other pacts. The US and India have agreed on a framework for discussion — or what they will talk about at least. US officials have also devised a single model off which to negotiate with other countries, which depends largely on interlocutors accepting a new 10% US duty on all their goods as a fait accompli.

Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating is slumping in poll after poll and tariffs are supremely unpopular. Consumer sentiment is tumbling. So is that of businesses and even the manufacturers Trump is ostensibly setting out to help with his tariffs. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey future business conditions index, which measures expectations for the next six months, hit its lowest level since 9/11 this month.

It’s hard to imagine things getting better quickly. Even if financial markets hold on to a fragile calm.

Read More: Trump’s Tariffs Collide With China Shock, Hitting Global Economy

The first reading of US GDP in 2025 will come out Wednesday, on Trump’s 100th day in office. It is expected to show that in the first quarter, which covers the majority of those 100 days, Trump oversaw a rapid slowdown in the economy, and possibly even a contraction.

Losing Leverage

The question now is how long that slowdown persists. We have moved from a period in which US data reflects the strength of the economy to one in which it is scrutinized for the damage being done by tariffs. Because even those who believe the new import taxes will fortify the US economy acknowledge there will be pain first.

The conundrum for other countries engaging with Washington is whether it’s worth negotiating at all for the time being. The US is rapidly losing leverage on its own. Trump has already backed down unilaterally multiple times in the face of turmoil in the markets. The sensible political move for his administration in the face of the growing pile of grim polls would be to recalibrate his maximalist trade strategy.

China is certainly girding itself for a longer fight. It’s getting ready to stimulate the domestic economy and courting non-US trading partners who are likely to see more engagement and visits than Trump in the coming months.

Deal With Japan

Japan, too, is taking a more muscular approach with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba declaring last week that Tokyo wouldn’t simply roll over to get a deal. Other officials also signaled Japan isn’t ready to include any actions aimed at China in an agreement.

Read More: Trump Shock Pushes US and China Toward Decoupling Cliff Edge

The stances seem to reflect the realization that Trump’s tariffs aren’t going away. Trump and his team are signaling pretty clearly that a 10% universal tariff is here to stay as are higher sectoral tariffs on cars, aluminum, steel, and eventually semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and more. Which means that for anyone planning for the longer term the salient questions are when financial markets will finally figure that out and how much economic pain Americans are willing to take before they rebel.

Uncertainty is a toxic economic force. But the best bet for many other presidents and prime ministers may be to adopt the wait-and-see approach many CEOs are embracing right now while America negotiates with itself and figures out what it really wants from its relationships with the rest of the world. It’s going to take much more than the next 100 days to resolve that. 

Related Reading:

• Ken Griffin Says Tariffs Won’t Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs
• Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip
• China May Exempt Some US Goods From Tariffs as Costs Rise
• China Vows Steps to Ease Exporters’ Pain as Trump’s Tariffs Hit

—Shawn Donnan in Washington

Bloomberg’s tariff tracker follows all the twists and turns of global trade wars. Click here for more of Bloomberg.com’s most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Slow start | After cruising along comfortably for most of last year, the US economy lost altitude at the start of 2025 as consumers tired and the trade deficit ballooned on a tariff-related scramble for imports. In Washington, the government’s initial estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product — due out on Wednesday — is projected to show the economy expanded at a 0.4% annualized rate, the weakest in nearly three years.

Today’s Must Reads

• Trump called for “free of charge” passage of American ships through the Panama and Suez canals, renewing his focus of expanding US influence over critical commercial and naval waterways.
• The world economy is at a “pivotal juncture” as trade tensions flare, members of the International Monetary Fund said in a statement after a week of discussions dominated by Trump’s tariffs.
• Congress will likely exert more authority over US trade policy if the White House doesn’t demonstrate “significant progress” in the ongoing tariff negotiations with dozens of countries in the coming weeks, New York Republican Representative Mike Lawler says.
• Amgen will invest $900 million to expand an Ohio manufacturing facility, the latest drug company to promise increased US production as the White House presses forward with tariffs on pharmaceuticals.
• The immediate crisis at British Steel has passed, but by taking control of the country’s last maker of virgin steel, the UK government has put itself in the crossfire of a global trade war.
• Israel’s central bank said that US tariffs are affecting the Jewish state’s economy. Separately, Singapore’s central bank warned a prolonged global trade war could pose even greater risks to growth and inflation.
• A new episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast features Anna Wong, the top US economist at Bloomberg Economics, about the new tariffs and the disruptions they’re already having on international trade.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

• Bloomberg Intelligence has developed a worst-case scenario tariff-analysis tool that helps identify companies' exposure to US tariffs, the potential impact on Ebit, and how much prices might have to rise to offset elevated costs. Click here for BI’s Tariff Matrix.
• Cosco Shipping’s full-year outlook is threatened with the Trump administration’s plan to impose levies on Chinese vessels docking at US ports. Analysts said the Chinese firm will be more susceptible to these threats compared to other global carriers.
• For Bloomberg Economics trade analysis: BECO MODELS TRADE
• Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
• Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
• See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
• For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
• Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
• On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
• See BNEF for BloombergNEF’s analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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