Markets Daily
Market Snapshot S&P 500 Futures 5,535 -0.27% US 10-Year Treasury Yield 4.272% +0.037 Bitcoin 95,055.38 +0.80% Stoxx Europe 600 Index 523.54
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Markets Snapshot
S&P 500 Futures 5,535 -0.27%
US 10-Year Treasury Yield 4.272% +0.037
Bitcoin 95,055.38 +0.80%
Stoxx Europe 600 Index 523.54 +0.59%
Gold 3,289.22 -0.92%
Market data as of 07:02 am EST. View or Create your Watchlist
Market data may be delayed depending on provider agreements.

Five things you need to know

  • It’s the busiest week of the corporate earnings season, with four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple, Meta and Amazon.com — due to report. And a wave of US data, including the jobs report, will show how the economy performed in the early part of President Donald Trump's term. 
  • Canadians will elect a new government on Monday, as Mark Carney’s Liberals try to extend their hold on power against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The first results will come in just after 7 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Follow the live results here, and read our election guide.  
  • Discount Chinese retail app Temu and fast-fashion giant Shein are raising prices ahead of imminent tariffs on small parcels, in an early sign of the potential effect of the trade war on American consumers.
  • Trump floated a cut to income taxes for people making less than $200,000 a year, as public anxiety rises over his economic agenda.
  • China dialed up scrutiny of the plan to sell Panama ports to a BlackRock-backed group, putting the deal that’s been a major focus of the Trump administration in limbo. 

100 days of whiplash

Donald Trump promised Americans a “boom like no other” if they elected him president. But based on the stock market’s performance during his first 100 days in office, it depends on what you mean by “boom.”

The action certainly has been explosive — just not in the way investors were hoping. By April 30, Trump will have closed out his first 100 days in office. Despite last week’s rally, the S&P 500 Index is down about 8% since his inauguration and on track for its worst run during a president’s first 100 days since Gerald Ford in 1974, following Richard Nixon’s resignation.

“It was whiplash after whiplash after whiplash,” said Dave Lutz, macro strategist at JonesTrading and a 30-year Wall Street veteran.

Few on Wall Street saw the U-turn coming after two straight years of over 20% gains and what was expected to be a pro-growth agenda.

The uncertainty over tariffs, combined with the administration’s aggressive push to deport undocumented workers and its mass firings of federal employees, unnerved investors and sent the S&P 500 spinning into its seventh-fastest correction since 1929. 

“It was an extreme, for-the-textbooks, systematic risk in its purest form,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert. “The volatility has been wholly different from anything we have experienced in the past, and it indiscriminately spread through all sectors and asset classes like a wildfire, constantly being fueled by random sound bites and shifting policy moves.”

Traders went all in on the America First bet immediately after Trump’s election victory, sending the S&P 500 to its best post-election gain ever. The thinking was the administration would loosen regulations and lower taxes, which would boost growth. But the president has instead focused on his tariff fight, sending markets spinning with each new announcement of levies on trade partners.

The S&P 500 lost more than 10% in two sessions earlier this month after Trump imposed the steepest US tariffs in a century on April 2. It then soared a week later when the administration reversed direction and delayed most of the duties for 90 days. Stocks have bounced around since then, but traders have struggled to find a direction.

“What he was elected for was ‘Make America Great Again,’ the ‘economy will be booming,’” said Eric Diton, president and managing director at Wealth Alliance. “But all the trade uncertainty has actually detracted from economic growth.” —Esha Dey

On the move

  • Tesla edges up 0.7% in premarket trading. It’s raising prices in Canada and encouraging buyers to snap up cars imported before counter-tariffs were imposed on US-made vehicles.
  • Airbus rises 1.8% in Paris. The European planemaker agreed to take over some assets and sites from struggling US aerospace supplier Spirit AeroSystems.
  • Nvidia falls 1.2%. Huawei is getting ready to test a new artificial intelligence processor that could replace some Nvidia products, according to a news report.
  • Deliveroo soars 18% in London. DoorDash has offered to buy the UK-based food delivery firm for $3.6 billion, marking a renewed attempt by the US company to expand into more overseas markets.  
  • NXP Semi is slated to report after the market closes on Monday. The semiconductor company is expected to report a more than 20% drop in earnings due to tariffs on China.
  • ServiceNow surged 22% last week, the most on record for the software company after it issued an outlook for sales growth that topped analysts’ estimates. — Subrat Patnaik 
The Stock Movers Podcast: Five minutes on the day's stock market winners and losers. Click here to listen on apple podcasts

The week ahead

Monday: Canadian parliamentary election

Tuesday: US JOLTS and consumer confidence data. HSBC and GM earnings. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund holds investment conference in Oslo.

Wednesday: US Treasury announces its latest debt refunding plans. US GDP report for first quarter, personal consumption data, Chinese purchasing managers index, consumer price indexes for France, Italy and Germany. Meta and Microsoft earnings.

Thursday: Bank of Japan sets interest rates, US jobless claims and manufacturing survey. Amazon and Apple earnings.

Friday: US nonfarm payrolls report and euro-area CPI. Check out the full rundown of the week ahead here.

Dollar pain

Rewind a few years, and imagine you’re an investor in Paris or Tokyo and you want a piece of the red-hot US equities market. You buy dollars, invest them in the surging S&P 500 or NASDAQ, and reap the rewards of both the stock rally and a soaring dollar.

It was a popular trade that worked well until the global trade war sent both the dollar and US stocks tumbling. A 6% decline in the S&P 500 this year has ballooned into a 14% wipe-out for those who measure their returns in euros and yen.

The losses have been magnified because more investors were opting against hedging a potential decline in the dollar because it usually rises in times of market turmoil. Overall currency hedging by foreign investors in US stocks stands at 23%, well below the near 50% level seen in 2020, State Street data shows.

That explains why losses have been so painful for many investors. It also points to further potential weakness for the dollar, said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Markets.

His thinking is that investors may start to position for a permanent shift in the correlation between the US dollar and US equities — where the currency no longer affords the protection it once did in times of turmoil — rendering the dollar potentially vulnerable.

Many overseas stockholders are now are rushing to add currency hedges to an American equity portfolio that stood at some $18 trillion as of December, equal to nearly a fifth of all US stocks.

Banks such as Morgan Stanley say they’re seeing more clients buy protection against dollar declines. And at Group Richelieu in Paris, Alexandre Hezez says his funds are now hedged to the maximum level allowed because “everything has been turned upside down.”

Even if Trump were to keep backpedaling and concede on the trade wars, the sheer chaos of the past month has exposed for many foreign investors the risks that come with funneling so much of their money into dollars. —Alice GledhillJulien Ponthus and Masaki Kondo

Word from Wall Street

“Who’s going to IPO an asset in this environment? Unless you have to, it’s probably not advisable,”
Kasim Kutay
Chief executive officer of Novo Holdings
Read the full story with the head of $160 billion fund behind Ozempic-maker Novo Nordisk. 

One number to start your day...

$27.56
Import charges on a $19.49 power strip listed on Temu as of Monday. A look at 14 shipped-from-China items on Temu’s bestsellers list showed taxes exceeded the value of the product.

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