Evening Briefing: Europe

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister said negotiations with the US over a deal to give Washington a cut of the country’s natural resources are in the final stages. Both sides have been locked in intense negotiations over the agreement that President Donald Trump’s administration sees as integral to its plan to broker a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The new draft has been almost agreed on and Ukraine is awaiting a reply from the US, according to a person familiar with the talks. The US will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and a “lasting peace” as part of the deal, a draft text seen by Bloomberg showed.

The Group of Seven, meanwhile, is on the brink of failing to agree on a joint statement to mark three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, people familiar said, widening a rift between the US and its European allies. — Jennifer Duggan

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German conservative leader Friedrich Merz is almost certain to become chancellor. He first needs to win over the Social Democrats, setting up tense negotiations to bridge their differences in areas like government borrowing and welfare spending. An alliance of Merz’s Christian Democrat-led bloc and the SPD — which slumped to its worst result since World War II in Sunday’s election — is the only viable path to power, strengthening the SPD’s bargaining position.

Merz speaks following a CDU party leadership meeting in Berlin on Feb. 2. Photographer: Ina Fassbender/Getty Images

European deals are starting to show signs of life, with more than $10 billion of takeovers announced in the past few days. Italian drilling specialist Saipem led the charge, plans to combine with Subsea 7 in a transaction valuing the Oslo-listed firm at €4.65 billion. Tech investor Prosus announced it will buy food delivery group Just Eat Takeaway.com for €4.1 billion. In the UK, National Grid said it will sell a renewables business to Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. for $1.7 billion. The flurry of transactions comes after a sluggish start to the year for deals around the world.

The Trump administration imposed a new round of sanctions on oil brokers, ships and people it said were linked to illicit shipments of Iranian crude. It framed the move as a return to a “maximum pressure” strategy to squeeze the country’s economy. Twenty-two people and 13 vessels were targeted in the latest sanctions, the State and Treasury Departments said.

France wants the EU to give the region’s carmakers more flexibility to comply with emissions targets this year. The bloc has ambitious targets to decarbonize the auto sector so that all new cars sold after 2035 are emissions free, with interim thresholds met along the way. Yet a slowdown in electric vehicles last year means some laggards risk missing this year’s goals, adding to a challenging outlook for the continent’s carmakers.

Apple will hire 20,000 new workers and produce AI servers in the US, as it seeks relief from Trump’s tariffs on goods imported from China. The company said it plans to spend $500 billion in the US over the next four years, which will include work on a new server manufacturing facility in Houston, a supplier academy in Michigan and additional spending with its existing suppliers in the country. The disclosure comes days after Trump and Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook met in the Oval Office.

The global economy is at risk of splintering under Trump’s policy onslaught, the head of South Africa’s central bank warned. “We are seeing trade fragmentation, we are seeing economic fragmentation and it just raises the level of uncertainty,” said South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago ahead of a Group of 20 meeting of finance chiefs and central bank governors. Trump has also frozen aid to South Africa over false claims about land seizures and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is skipping the G-20 meeting this week.

The Democratic Republic of Congo says it’s suspending cobalt exports for four months to rein in oversupply of the battery metal on the international market. Cobalt production in Congo — which produces about three-quarters of the material used in electric-vehicle batteries — has soared in recent years, as China’s CMOC Group ramped up output at two large mines in the country causing supply to race ahead of demand and prices to tumble.