Washington, DC

1. Paxton leaks irritate GOP
2. FTC’s AI probe
3. Tech visa crackdown
4. Obama 2026
5. No Iran strikes
6. Nigerian president’s FOIA problem

The US deficit climbed to $2 trillion in fiscal year 2026, 12% above 2025, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Paxton leaks prompt Republican hand-wringing

Three is a trend, and the leaks about Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton’s campaign have hit that threshold, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. The Texas Tribune today published audio of Paxton saying the US needs to “suck it up” and cut federal programs, more leaks from the same fundraiser that elicited Paxton’s complaints about gas prices, lack of control over his own campaign, and the Republican convention depressing his numbers. “Paxton has always relied on his base and a strong statewide ticket to carry him across the finish line. He’s never played anywhere near this level and doesn’t understand the magnitude of effort being expended on his behalf to try to win this race,” Steven Law, former leader of the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC, told Semafor. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said of Paxton: “Got to be more careful when you run with the big dogs.”

FTC advancing on its AI safety probe

The Federal Trade Commission is close to sending investigative demands to frontier AI companies, a senior agency official told Semafor’s Ashley Gold — a sign that its AI probe is moving forward after its unusual disclosure to the public. The FTC’s planned AI inquiry emerged in a New York Post story as the White House raced to project seriousness about the rise of tech. It’s rare for the FTC to reveal an investigation before it sends investigative demands, which have subpoena-like force. The leak of the probe raised the question of whether FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson plans an in-depth inquiry or a probe that’s more designed to convey the appearance of action ahead of the midterms. Yet the senior official reiterated that the FTC is planning a significant probe, adding that it was initiated due to public health and safety concerns about AI.

Trump administration blocks tech companies from visa program

The Trump administration today suspended more than a half-dozen tech companies, including Microsoft, from the program that allows permanent hiring of foreign workers — escalating its long-simmering clash with the tech industry over immigration, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Eleanor Mueller report. “The H-1B visa program is meant to allow companies to bring in really the best of the best from outside the United States of America,” Vice President JD Vance told reporters. “Unfortunately, the program has become rife with fraud.” The administration has tangled with tech companies over its interest in reining in H-1B visas for highly skilled workers. Today’s announcement formally bans Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant, Infosys, and four other companies from the permanent labor certification process. The administration also announced it had served subpoenas for a new investigation into multiple universities over their use of J-1 visas for exchange students.

Obama’s legacy becomes a midterm issue

Barack Obama’s return to the campaign trail is rekindling a fight between progressive Democrats and their colleagues about whether the 44th president’s tenure was a success. For years, Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed was critical of Obama’s record on healthcare, foreign policy, and immigration — critiques he’s no longer making as a Senate candidate, and as Obama and other more moderate Democrats campaign for him. (“We stand on the shoulders of giants,” El-Sayed told CNN.) The “Bernie wing” of the party sees Michigan as the year’s most important race, with El-Sayed and allies ready to argue that his win there proves that “Medicare for All” and progressive politics can win anywhere. But Obama isn’t conditioning his support on candidates agreeing with everything he did as president. “I disagree with him on some things; I disagree with him on trade issues,” Maine’s Troy Jackson told reporters on Thursday, while otherwise thanking Obama for endorsing him for Senate in a video.

— David Weigel

Trump rules out Iran strikes before midterms

President Donald Trump announced that the US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections today, even as tensions with Tehran continue to mount. Reports that Trump had directed the Pentagon to prepare potential strike options for the coming weeks seemed to prompt the president to insist on Truth Social that the US and Iran remain engaged in “productive discussions.” The administration continues to increase its economic pressure campaign: The Treasury Department sanctioned 17 tankers today that it says represent “the remnants of Iran’s shadow fleet” as it searches for ways to pressure Tehran without targeting Chinese financial institutions. But even as Trump tries to lower the temperature, heightened tensions are already rattling oil markets: deadly Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s airports pushed oil to $105 a barrel today, despite increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

— Lauren Morganbesser

A case winds from Chicago to Washington via Abuja

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has suffered a major setback in a Washington courtroom, where a litigant with no apparent ties to the African nation has fought for three years to unseal FBI records that could potentially damage Tinubu ahead of an election in January, Semafor’s Adrian Elimian reports. Tinubu’s US lawyers have fought alongside the Justice Department to keep FBI records from a 1990s Chicago drug trafficking case sealed. The FBI was forced to admit that it holds an investigative file on Tinubu in August when it released hundreds of pages of redacted records in accordance with a court order. The plaintiff has challenged the redactions, arguing they obscure too much. The case traces to a 1993 forfeiture, when US authorities seized roughly $460,000 from Tinubu over alleged ties to a heroin network. He was not criminally charged and denies wrongdoing.

After four decades at Honeywell, Vimal Kapur was an unlikely CEO to break up the 140-year-old conglomerate, even with the activist investor Elliott at its gates. But he concluded that no common strategy could hold together a group serving such diverse markets, he tells Penny Pritzker and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson on The CEO Signal.

Kapur spun off his company’s aerospace and chemicals divisions to leave himself in charge of Honeywell Technologies, which focuses on mission-critical automation. But he says the acquisitions he made through that process were every bit as important as the process of simplifying an overly complex corporate structure. A focused business won’t work without scale, he says — “and we need to scale from here.”

White House

• President Trump emailed Medicare enrollees to explain a $90 one-time payment they will receive.
• Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet with Ukrainian representatives in Miami tomorrow to discuss a unified peace proposal. — Axios

National Security

• An Army investigation found systemic safety failures contributed to the 2025 Black Hawk-airliner collision that killed 67 people in DC.

Courts

• The National Football League filed a brief urging the Supreme Court to take up a case to determine whether prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws or federal financial regulations.
• A federal judge heard arguments over President Trump’s ban on CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House.

Congress

• The Saving College Sports group is warning the four Atlantic Coast Conference schools are trying to tank the Protect College Sports Act in the House, per Burgess Everett.

Immigration

• The Trump administration is considering using ships to deport immigrants. — NYT

Health

• Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and offered federal support as the state responds to a measles outbreak.

World

• A US diplomat in Jerusalem suppressed reports critical of Israel. — NYT
• Former Trump administration officials are taking lucrative private-sector roles in Venezuela’s oil industry. — WaPo
• Greece agreed to spend up to $4 billion upgrading more of its F-16 fighter jets and buying advanced missiles from the US. — Reuters

Outside the Beltway

• Canadian poet and essayist Anne Carson was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature.

Business

• Spotify renewed podcaster Joe Rogan’s multiyear deal, keeping licensing and ad-sales rights for his podcast.

Media

• Conservative podcasters are increasingly talking about “affordability.”