Good morning. Angela Skujins on newsletter duties this week, with our attention split between Germany, the United States and Belgium this Monday morning. Let's go.
Trouble in Europe’s centre: Germany’s final state elections of 2026 occurring over the weekend have reshaped the political landscape, with the Left securing the strongest position in the state of Berlin and the far-right anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) topping the polls in the northern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The results are expected to shake German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to its core, with the party’s stunning losses directly tied to the swelling gains of the AfD.
Merz described the results in Berlin “reasonable” but the Macklenburg-Western Pomerania political outcome as “a disaster”. The CDU recorded its worst result in the state's history in the latter state with just 4.9%, meaning it has not met the threshold to enter parliament. For a drill-down into the numbers, my Berlin-based colleague Johanna Urbancik has this must-read story.
Despite the data, Merz has promised resolve: “What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness, and patience,” he said in a statement shortly after the exit polls were announced Sunday night. “I will demonstrate these qualities as chairman of the CDU and, above all, as chancellor of our country.”
The results also follow a similarly bruising result in Saxony-Anhalt, forcing many political spectators to wonder whether the chancellor’s time may soon be up.
Sabrina Repp, German Member of the European Parliament of the Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), just told Europe Today that the far-right has risen in Germany since the most recent European Parliament elections in 2024. “You can see, especially in the eastern part of Germany, an increase in the results of the AfD of over 30%,” she said. Watch.
New York minute: Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen alongside a top team of EU officials are in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.
Today, she is expected to meet the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese alongside European Council President António Costa. Could this be about potential associate membership for Europe’s far-flung ally, as winked at by European Parliament President Roberta Metsola last week? The European Commission spokesperson Arianna Podestà poured cold water on Canberra potentially joining the fold last Friday, telling reporters she would not speculate.
Carney-villesque: But the meeting of middle powers doesn’t stop there, with von der Leyen attending a multilateral-themed meet-up alongside Kenyan President William Ruto, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and none other than Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. In an combined opinion piece for the Financial Times newspaper, the leaders outlined their pitch for a new middle power partnership, aiming to “renew and strengthen” the multilateral system, “not replace it”.
On top of this, von der Leyen said last week she would use her time in the US to emphasise that Europe is steadfast in its support for war-torn Ukraine. “Now others must step up their support too,” her online statement says. Canada has already expressed desire to participate in the EU’s €90 billion support loan for the war-battered country, but only time will tell whether other nations join the call.
Also in New York, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would meet US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the UNGA. "We agreed to meet in New York, and this meeting could change a lot. There is diplomatic momentum," Zelenskyy wrote on social media platform X. It comes as the mayor of Moscow decries that Ukraine launched its "largest-scale attack" on Russia’s capital since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
Federico Borsari, fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Programme at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, just told Europe Today, that he is not optimistic Russia could lessen its assault on Ukraine despite the political pressure and fresh assault from Kyiv.
“There will definitely be an attempt by Russia to destroy and damage — even more — the power grid and the critical infrastructure in Ukraine,” he said.
Back to Brussels: The EU’s 27 ambassadors are meeting in the Belgian capital this morning to thrash out a deal to renew the individual sanctions on Russia before they expire at midnight on Tuesday, Jorge Liboreiro writes. Failure to do so would free Vladimir Putin, Sergey Lavrov and over 2,600 names from the blacklist. As Moscow escalates the war, no one wants to portray weakness.
“We have a very tight deadline,” a senior diplomat said. “All our efforts are focused on reaching an agreement on Monday.” But the picture looks increasingly thorny.
First, Slovakia wants the removal of Russian businessmen Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, a long-held request. Second, France wants the removal of Usmanov to secure the release of several French prisoners held in Azerbaijan. And finally, Luxembourg says that if Usmanov is removed, then Fridman should be removed too. Fridman is seeking compensation from the Grand Duchy over the freezing of his personal assets, estimated at $16 billion.
How to square the circle? Until now, Ireland, the country that holds the rotating presidency, has been loath to propose delistings. The majority in the room is against removing the high-profile oligarchs. If the puzzle proves intractable, ambassadors may once again agree to a one-week extension to buy themselves more time. But a longer wait risks inviting fresh requests.
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