The situation around oil and fuel (or gas for my US readers) has escalated with explosive pace over the past week. At the same time, I've watched tanker ETFs climb in what looks like a straight line up as speculators join the 'how high can it go' frenzy.
But whenever an event like this grips the market, my mind goes to a simple question: how long can it actually last?
Call me an unrestrained optimist, but like other times of uncertainty in the past, I think this too shall pass. And that makes the question of 'how long until then' an important one, because a trade like this only delivers while the disruption is still in effect. If it were a wine, I'd say it has notes of... timing the market.
Most of us mere mortals cannot time the market. Certainly not repeatedly. What has worked for countless investors instead is the long-term approach. The one where we think in decades, not months; holding a portfolio through every kind of condition so that compounding can do its thing.
Which is why the more useful framework in times like this is to look where most people won't: at the opportunities that persist no matter how fast events resolve, rather than the ones that only pay while a single condition holds.
This week's Market Insights is built on this philosophy.
Sincerely,
Mitchell Lawler, Senior Investment Editor
