We’re back in the danger zone. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a new 19-year high above 5% early Tuesday—that should put markets on red alert. 

Stock futures aren’t getting too badly hit, but the S&P 500 is on track for a sixth decline in seven days. The artificial-intelligence selloff is at least abating for some. We can thank President Donald Trump’s impromptu call to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for that.

But a bond-driven move is likely to be broader, and perhaps a more immediate problem for markets than the AI doomsday scenario. Markets are suddenly pricing in up to four quarter-point Federal Reserve hikes by June 2027, with the first expected Wednesday.

It feels like something’s got to give. Perhaps Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will end his vow of silence on guidance tomorrow?  

It’s also crunch time for Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks, which were falling ahead of the Senate’s Clarity Act vote later today. Some of the market’s biggest fears will come to a head in the coming days—one way or another.

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