
New York and San Francisco
finally connected on Monday as artificial intelligence’s existential-risk debate hit the stock market.
Nvidia fell more than 3% Monday morning, while Intel, AMD, and Marvell dropped between 5% and 6%, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a widely used measure of semiconductor stocks, down almost 6%.
Yet two of the biggest spenders in the buildout went the other direction: Alphabet rose almost 2%, Microsoft added 1.6%, and Meta gained roughly 1.4%.
That divergence offers a bit of a window into how investors are gaming out something that, until this weekend, had quietly lurked in Wall Street’s risk models: What if the frontier AI race actually slows?
Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, argued that would hurt the companies selling the infrastructure—the picks and shovels of the trade, like Nvidia and CoreWeave—far more than the hyperscalers buying it.
If AI continues improving exponentially, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google will keep building data centers to meet demand, Luria told
Fortune. But if progress slows, they can simply stop adding capacity and harvest the returns from what they already built, he predicted.
Revenue and profits could keep rising while capital expenditures fall, sending cash flow higher. Luria compared the dynamic to Amazon’s post-pandemic pullback in warehouse construction, which paradoxically allowed cash flow to surge as the company continued using the capacity it had already built.
That helps explain Monday’s strange split. Nvidia relies on customer spending for its revenue, but Google and Meta are the ones doing the spending, and they could suddenly spend less.
—Eva Roytburg