A look at what’s making 2026 seem different from 2018
TUE., SEP. 15, 2026
By Steve Kornacki
Welcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter about the most consequential elections of the midterms. Every Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. In today’s edition: How two crucial groups of voters in Texas appear to be shifting, and a preview of the two counties I’ll be watching on election night. Let’s dive in.
What I’m watching
You know the story in Texas: Democrats are trying to flip a Republican-held Senate seat and win a statewide election for the first time in 32 years. If they succeed, their chances of claiming a Senate majority will be dramatically bolstered.
If that sounds familiar, you may be remembering 2018, which is the closest Democrats have come to snapping their decadeslong dry spell. Democrat Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points during President Donald Trump’s first midterm, a wave election year in which Democrats swept the House but not the Senate.
But there are potentially important differences between then and now.
(Reuters; Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Polling in the current contest between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is close and notably different from 2018. Back then...
