Welcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter about the most consequential elections of the midterms. Every Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. In this edition: what to watch for in the Senate runoff race in South Carolina, where President Trump’s preferred candidate, Darline Graham, seeks a full term. Let’s dive in.
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Tonight in South Carolina, Republican voters will once more head to the polls to select a nominee for the Senate. President Donald Trump, rallying for his preferred candidate, has urged his faithful to pretend that it is his name on the ballot.
But it is the candidate’s own name that could really matter in this primary runoff race, with Trump’s enduring clout with his base at stake.
Sen. Darline Graham was temporarily appointed to her seat after her brother, longtime Sen. Lindsey Graham, died. Two weeks ago, with Trump’s backing, the political newcomer finished first in the preliminary round of voting for the chance to serve a full six-year term. She outpaced Rep. Ralph Norman 33% to 25% and finished ahead of him in 36 of the state’s 46 counties. And during the runoff campaign, Trump renewed his commitment to her by traveling to the state for a rare in-person campaign event.
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(Saul Loeb / AFP via Getty Images) |
But her position heading into today’s runoff is anything but secure. Here’s why.
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Subscribe to keep reading The Data Dive, including Steve Kornacki’s analysis of why Darline Graham’s position may be less secure than it looks and the region that could decide tonight’s South Carolina runoff. |
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