Washington, DC

1. Unfinished Senate business
2. Schumer’s battleground map
3. Ogles ousted in Tennessee
4. The anti-Miller strategy
5. Minnesota primary jockeying
6. US ships face Hormuz ban
7. Fauci contempt fallout
8. Jobs report outlook

PDB: Senate to bail before voting on crypto bill

Trump to hold mining roundtable … WSJ: US intel says Putin could launch limited assault on NATO ally … Scientists unveil first AI-generated viruses

Senate finalizes deal on Russia sanctions

The Senate is back in session today after senators made progress on a voting deal to go on August recess — but didn’t fully clinch it. That means a rare Friday session, when the Senate will finish its saga on Russia sanctions after wrestling with the issue for more than a year. First, though, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., will get an amendment vote to scrap some of the bill’s tariffs. The Senate will also take a vote to advance a bill funding the government through Dec. 11, though final passage may require settling a messy feud over extending a delay of a ban on hemp products that’s now roiling social conservatives. It’s still not clear how the Senate will resolve the bipartisan college sports bill or Todd Blanche’s nomination to be attorney general, given he currently lacks the votes to be confirmed.

— Burgess Everett

Schumer: Senate battle may expand further

Chuck Schumer thinks this might be a wave year — and he sees Democrats possibly going on offense in even more red states, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. The Senate Democratic leader said he’s increasingly interested in both Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton and Mississippi Democrat Scott Colom, both of whom are running in states where the party hasn’t won for decades. But Schumer said this might be the time to press their advantage for the long term. “That’s how you build a majority, by expanding the map. And I’d like to build a majority that not only is in 2026, but on into the future,” Schumer said. Democrats are already competing for GOP-held seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, a huge target list. Republicans have their own plans. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott told Semafor he’s still eyeing opportunities in four Democratic-held states.

Ogles booted in Tennessee primary

Tennessee voters ousted Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Ogles in Thursday’s primary. Ogles, elected in 2022, had struggled to raise money after a campaign finance fraud investigation and inflammatory social media posts about Islam and LGBTQ people. Ogles is the second House Republican to lose renomination in a redrawn seat this year, after Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas; Ogles’ opponent, Charlie Hatcher, got a $2 million lift from the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, which has targeted Republicans who unwound green energy credits. “We will continue to punish members of either party who want to play politics with American jobs, energy security, and utility prices,” said the group’s chair, Tom Matzzie, in a statement. Also Tuesday, Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the GOP nomination to succeed Gov. Bill Lee, and Democrats nominated state Rep. Justin Pearson in a seat Republicans redrew to replace a deep-blue seat in Memphis.

— David Weigel

Miller opponent not focused on scandal

There’s a reason why the Democratic challenger to Rep. Max Miller isn’t talking much about the domestic abuse allegations against the Ohio Republican. Brian Poindexter told Semafor that he believes voters want him focused on the cost of living, not his opponent. Poindexter, an ironworker, told Semafor that Ohioans are “tired of the campaign of ‘vote for me because the other guy is so terrible.’ And everybody knows Max Miller’s issues.” In sticking to the economy, Poindexter — endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders — is aligning with the Vermont independent’s view that voters’ real-world concerns outweigh personal scandals. And with some recent polling showing Poindexter pulling ahead of Miller, with a large majority of voters in the district already aware of the abuse allegations, the Democrat’s strategy could be working.

— Nicholas Wu

Candidate forum boosts Flanagan in MN

A survey of Minnesota swing voters showed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan gained support from the final candidate forum before the Aug. 11 Senate primary — the next test for Sanders and other progressives trying to reshape the Democratic Party. Voters who watched the forum for the Swing Voter Pilot broke 68-32 for Rep. Angie Craig, Flanagan’s Democratic primary rival, before the forum. After the forum, the swing voters broke just 60-40 for Craig, who is the top-ranking Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, despite giving her credit for answering with more specifics. Two-thirds of voters called Flanagan the most liberal candidate, while two-thirds said that Craig had the better understanding of rural Minnesota. Other polling hasn’t identified a clear favorite in the race; Craig told Semafor that she’d “been saying for months now that polling is broken.”

— David Weigel

US ships could face Hormuz ban

US and Israeli ships will be banned from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s regime-linked news agency Fars, citing details of an emerging deal between Iran and Oman. Other proposals include the ability to block and fine vessels of other “hostile” nations, a sweeping classification that would leave Tehran with far greater control of the waterway than before the US-Iran war. “That’s clearly not going to go down well in Washington,” Thomas Warrick, a former US diplomat, told Bloomberg. The latest whiplash in negotiations with Tehran’s divided government comes after reports that the US hoped a deal would materialize by Wednesday. Oil prices spiked as expectations for a clean reopening of the strait looked increasingly uncertain.

How Fauci’s future could affect Pirro’s

The Justice Department is “reviewing” the recently approved resolution holding former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress and “will work with the Senate accordingly” on it, an official confirmed to Semafor. The department hasn’t said whether it will pursue charges against Fauci for asserting his Fifth Amendment rights during a recent Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing. But some Trump allies suggested to Semafor that doing so could help the embattled US attorney for DC, Jeanine Pirro, earn some “brownie points” with Trump, as one official put it. (Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said he referred the documents to both the attorney general and Pirro.) Trump remains frustrated over dropped charges in Reflecting Pool cases but has not yet moved to oust Pirro — and he is in favor of prosecuting Fauci, as he indicated to reporters yesterday.

— Shelby Talcott

US labor market expected to hold fast

Economists are predicting “solid, no-drama numbers” when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its July jobs report today, in spite of still-high energy prices and the threat of future rate hikes. That means an unchanged unemployment rate and some 80,000 additional jobs, up from June’s 57,000. “As for the rest of the year,” Access/Macro’s Guy Berger wrote, “slower or non-existent improvement is my base case at this point.” Federal Reserve officials will be looking closely at other indicators, like labor market participation, to get a better feel for its trajectory as they try to map out their next steps on interest rates. The payroll company ADP said this week that private-sector companies added just 44,000 jobs in July, which its chief economist attributed in part to employers changing their hiring practices in response to “shifting macroeconomic conditions.”

— Eleanor Mueller

SubwayTakes is reinventing the talk show for the vertical video era. On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals, creator and host Kareem Rahma joins Max and Ben to discuss how he built a show that feels spontaneous but runs like a TV production, why his Kamala Harris episode never aired, and his new show, Keep the Meter Running. Plus, his business model, the costs, and what he learned from watching VICE go bankrupt.

Listen to the latest Mixed Signals now.

Blindspot: Drag shows and the BBC

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A federal appeals court upheld a Florida state law fining venues that let children see drag shows.

What the Right isn’t reading: A judge granted President Trump’s request to delay handing over financial records to the BBC as part of litigation over the network’s reporting on him.