Dear friends and colleagues:
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated.
All the major reserve-currency issuing central banks have held their policy rates steady over the past month. The Fed held at 3.63%, the ECB at 2.25%, the PBoC at 3%, the BoJ at 1%, the BoE at 3.75%, the Bank of Canada at 2.25%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia at 4.35%. Our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/Tightening (+) stays steady at +2.95/10—modest tightening.
New Fed chair Kevin Warsh is off to a rocky start with the markets, which are struggling to gauge his thinking as to whether and when the Fed will start raising rates to bring down inflation—which remains stubbornly elevated in the face of headwinds from the Iran war, tariffs, and AI infrastructure costs. Markets are currently pricing in a 55% chance of 25bp rate hike at or before the next scheduled FOMC meeting on September 16.
Please be sure also to check out our CFR Global Inflation Tracker, which covers nearly 200 countries over the past quarter century.
Sincerely,
