So far in 2026, the S&P 500 has been anywhere from -7.5% to +11.2%.
But individual stocks have been all over the place. Look at Micron - it’s been anywhere from flat to +285%. Source: Fiscal.aiAnd that includes a 37% drawdown in the past month. Source: Fiscal.aiMicron is a company that at one point was worth $1.3 trillion - this isn’t some volatile microcap company. What’s going on? The answer lies in this chart, which shows the VIX and the VIXEQ.
The main thing to take away from this chart is that right now, the average stock is much more volatile than the index, and the gap between the lines has been getting wider. Earnings season is here, and it’s a great excuse for Mr. Market to change his moods very quickly, so I don’t expect the volatility in individual stocks to settle down any time soon. Earnings have caused some volatility in our portfolio as well. We’ve seen anything from +30% to -15% in the past week as earnings reports roll in. Today I’ll give you an update on the first 3 companies that have reported earnings since Wednesday. On Monday, I’ll update you on the two that had the most volatile earnings reactions. British American TobaccoWhen Mr. Market gets depressed, long term dividend investors get to go shopping. We bought British American Tobacco when it was yielding nearly 9%, buying it when the market was worried about the debt load, and the negative earnings number that was brought down by non-cash charges. Source: Fiscal.aiSince then Mr. Market’ volatility has worked in our favor, with the stock up roughly 75% since we bought it. The company just released its half-year 2026 earnings, and Mr. Market barely flinched. |