Although the wars in Gaza and Iran may seem transformative, today’s Middle East “looks a lot like the one that existed before” Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, writes F. Gregory Gause III in a new essay in the forthcoming issue of Foreign Affairs.
The Palestinian question remains unresolved and the region is still made up of weak Arab states that serve as “breeding grounds for armed groups,” Gause writes. The conflict between Iran and Israel endures and leaders on both sides “seem even more set in their beliefs than they were before” the conflagration of the past three years. “There has been no meaningful change to the essential dynamics and interests of the Middle East,” he argues. As a result, even if the United States and Iran can reach a more sustainable cease-fire, “the countdown to the next war will have already begun.”
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