Insider

The Insider has something striking for you this week—which is why this newsletter is landing in your inbox later than usual. We have just published our cover story, in which Andrey Melnichenko, one of Russia’s richest oligarchs, lays out in stark terms how his country needs to change if it is ever to become part of a stable peace. After four and a half years of silence from the Russian elites, it is a remarkable intervention from an insider living in Moscow who understands the risks of speaking out in Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Mr Melnichenko spent nearly 60 hours speaking to Arkady Ostrovsky, our Russia editor, to share why he thinks change is needed. In this jaw-dropping conversation he laid out several scenarios for Russia’s future, all of them unremittingly bleak. They range from the country becoming a vassal state, to a collapse into anarchy, as warlords struggle for control of resources and nuclear weapons. One scenario would be for Russia to turn inwards, like North Korea, a closed fortress under siege. Mr Melnichenko never says Mr Putin must be removed from power. But the change he wants would amount to an end to one-man rule.

This intervention comes at a time when there is a palpable and growing sense of anxiety in Russia. The war against Ukraine has come home and is now everybody’s problem. Attacks are reaching ever deeper into Russia, disrupting energy supplies, causing fuel queues and prompting fist-fights at filling stations. A growing number of influencers are complaining about the war on social media. Our show this week will try to make sense of all this. Arkady will join me in the studio today, alongside Oliver Carroll, our Kyiv correspondent, and Edward Carr, my deputy editor.

We’ll begin by looking at who Mr Melnichenko is and why he is speaking out now. He has a fascinating story that took him from his home town in Belarus to a billionaire’s super-yacht (when he was 14 the Chernobyl nuclear-power plant exploded 160km away from where he grew up). I’m keen to talk to Arkady about the oligarch’s motives. Is this a genuine attempt to persuade Mr Putin to change course? Or is it a job application, an attempt to signal how useful he could be to the Russian president?

We’ll then discuss the context of this intervention. Ollie will provide an update on Ukraine and whether the front lines remain locked in a grinding stalemate. Then we’ll look at what might happen inside Russia. Reform in Russia does have a precedent, which Ed outlines in his cover leader. But Mr Melnichenko is elusive about what change might look like inside Russia. He wants Western countries to recognise that it is in their interest for Russia to have “sovereignty”—an immunity from criticism that sounds like China’s demand for non-interference.

We’ll end by looking ahead. I will ask Ed, Arkady and Ollie what it all might mean for Russia’s future. Is Russia heading towards anarchy, autarky or something else entirely?

I’d like to hear your views on Russia’s future, too. Please vote in our poll, and, once you’ve done so, send any questions you’d like me to put to my colleagues in today’s show using the Q&A feature on the episode page. The episode will be available to watch from 6pm London time (1pm in New York) today. As ever, I’m keen to hear your feedback on our discussion. If you have thoughts or ideas to share, please write to me at insider@economist.com.