Russia “has been and remains a power in decline,” but it should still be able to reconstitute its military after the war in Ukraine ends, writes Michael Kofman in a new essay in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. In as few as five to seven years, Russia’s armed forces will likely have bounced back “enough to pose a major threat” to NATO.
The United States and its European allies must start planning accordingly, Kofman argues. Even as they “focus on ensuring Ukraine’s success, they must also think beyond this war and begin preparing for the enduring challenge that Russia poses.” Any future “NATO-Russian conflict would undoubtedly play out differently than the war in Ukraine has,” he writes. “But poor Russian performance and observable weaknesses should not be cause for complacency.”
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