“The reality today is that China is not capable of conquering Taiwan. Nor is it likely to gain this capability any time soon,” writes Dennis Blair, the former commander in chief of U.S. Pacific Command, in a new essay in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs. “China’s buildup once threatened to shift the military balance in Beijing’s favor, but trends in military technology now favor Taiwan and the United States, not China.”
These advantages should not breed complacency in Washington, Blair warns. Favorable trends “are not self-sustaining,” and “deterring the formidable but not superior Chinese military will require resources and commitment.” Yet the United States must also resist panicking over the prospect of an imminent Chinese victory. “As long as Taiwan and its defenders stay on their current paths, the gap between China’s aspirations and its ability to realize them will only increase in the coming years.”
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