On Sunday, Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had reached a historic memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran, ending a war he started in February. The announcement, providing him a much-needed off-ramp for an unpopular war, was classic Trump: triumphalist, superlative and immediate. “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” he posted on Truth Social. “Congratulations to all!”
If this feels uncomfortably familiar, it’s because we have seen this act before.
Back in May, around one month after enacting punishing worldwide tariffs as part of “Liberation Day,” Trump announced a “full and comprehensive” trade deal with the United Kingdom. That comprised just five pages of general commitments, with the hardest questions left to future negotiations. Seven months later, the deal was frozen.
Trump announced a Gaza ceasefire twice—once in January 2025 and again in October—with both structured so that Phase 1 delivered some immediate wins while Phase 2 left the most consequential questions for later. But Phase 2 negotiations never happened...
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