A peace deal between the U.S. and Iran looks to finally be in sight. Investors can celebrate the prospect of cheaper oil and lower inflation, but that doesn’t mean everything can go back to how it was before the war. 

With an interim agreement set to be signed Friday, some effects were immediate. Crude prices were dropping early Monday, while gold, cryptocurrency, and energy-sensitive stocks—think airlines and cruise operators—were rising. While markets had already been pricing in a deal, there is still room for a modest relief rally. 

But it’s not as simple as a reset to pre-war conditions. The fragile cease-fire already in place will face tests over the draft 60-day extension to reach a hoped-for broader agreement as Washington and Tehran debate nuclear programs and sanctions. That’s without even considering the role of Israel or how the vital Strait of Hormuz oil shipping route will be administered.

Policymakers will have to grapple with long-lasting risks exposed by the conflict. For governments, that could mean stockpiling oil and other commodities while investing in alternative energy sources—expect revived interest in renewables and nuclear. The need to invest in defense will likely be a hot topic at the G-7 conference in France this week as President Donald Trump continues to push U.S. allies to raise military spending. 

On the financial side, central banks are likely to take a cautious approach. Interest-rate hikes could still be on the table even with lower oil prices. New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will lead his first monetary-policy meeting, starting Tuesday, and although the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, expect lively debate about whether the bias is toward tightening or easing for the remainder of the year.

Markets are set to enjoy an immediate peace dividend, but investors must recognize the realities of a changed world.

—Adam Clark

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President Donald Trump heads to the Group of Seven summit with an agreement reached with Iran, though the official signing isn’t until Friday, sparking worries it could still collapse. Trump declared victory, authorizing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the U.S. naval blockade.

• The announcement late Sunday came after hours of tensions over Israel’s early Sunday strikes on Lebanon, which threatened to stall talks. Trump criticized Israel for the strikes on Beirut, urging it not to “blow it.” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif later announced the deal was reached.

• The text of the memorandum of understanding wasn’t available as of late Sunday, despite the announcements by Pakistan negotiators and Trump. Sharif said mediators would facilitate a series of meetings this week to lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.  

• U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump had every intention of signing a peace deal with Iran on Sunday, but deferred to the White House on timing. He told ABC’s This Week that Iran’s negotiators were having a tough time getting guidance from their Supreme Leader.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said once a deal is reached the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could end. But he also told CBS’ Face the Nation that the blockade could snap back quickly if need be.

What’s Next: Trump will be in France through Wednesday for the G-7 meetings, where he is scheduled to meet bilaterally with French President Emmanuel Macron, the leaders of Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and India, among other meetings.

—Liz Moyer

This week’s Federal Reserve policymaking meeting is Kevin Warsh’s first as chairman. The one prediction that can be made with certainty is that Fed officials will make no change in the central bank’s key policy rate range. The latest summary of economic predictions could show points of contention.

• There could be dissents in the wording of its policy statement, as there has been at every recent meeting since last June, mostly (but not all) calling for more aggressive rate-cutting action. April’s statement had three dissents from Fed district presidents who preferred to drop the bias toward future easing.

• What will be especially interesting will be the Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, from the seven members of the Board of Governors and all 12 Fed presidents (five of whom vote on the FOMC, with the New York Fed president always voting.) The last projections came out in March.

• Two things to look for are how much the SEP has changed in view of all the geopolitical events, market moves, and economic data released in the past three months. Not only might the dot-plot of interest rate projections reveal a great divergence of opinion, it may have some abstentions.

• Warsh himself may not list his dots to express his opposition to so-called forward guidance, said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners. Other members may pencil in rate hikes, signaling that dissents may be a new norm, Boockvar told Barron’s.

What’s Next: Warsh may chair a “fractious FOMC,” according to Stephen Brown, chief North American economist at Capital Economics. Recent speeches suggest some members have turned hawkish, with six of 12 seemingly willing to support a rate hike if inflation remains near current levels.

—Randall W. Forsyth

Now that SpaceX’s stock is officially trading, all eyes will be following it this week to see what happens next. The history of other splashy initial public offerings can offer some guidance about the next moves, but that history also shows that investors can’t rely solely on it.

• Elon Musk’s rocket company has leveraged lower costs to reach orbit by pioneering reusable rockets into a profitable space-based broadband network. Next up for SpaceX is orbital AI data centers. Expectations that space-based AI will be low cost and profitable underpin SpaceX’s $2.1 trillion valuation.

• Before SpaceX came Google, which is now Alphabet. Its 2004 IPO was a little unique, like SpaceX, which opted for a fixed $135 IPO price instead of a traditional range. Google conducted a modified Dutch auction (in which participants indicate the maximum price they are willing to pay), settling on an unsplit adjusted price of $85 a share.

• Shares of Google were up about 8% the week after the IPO, following an 18% day-one pop. (For comparison, SpaceX’s day-one stock rose 19%). Google’s stock was up about 176% a year after the IPO’s day-one close, according to FactSet.

• Facebook, now called Meta Platforms, was a different story. Shares posted a tiny day-one gain and were down 17% the week after its 2012 IPO. The largest drawdown over the next year was 54%, and the stock was about 31% lower after a year than on the first day of trading.

What’s Next: SpaceX stock is also going into the Nasdaq 100 in a few days. That will create an estimated $7 billion to $10 billion of passive buying by funds tracking the tech-heavy index. Nasdaq is adjusting the position size by float, or the shares available for trading.

—Al Root

Fewer cows may lead to fewer jobs. America’s cattle crisis is pushing meatpackers to shut plants, cut shifts, and rethink how much processing capacity the industry actually needs.

JBS, the world’s largest meat-processing company, said on Friday that it will close its beef-processing plant in Souderton, Pennsylvania, and a value-added facility in Memphis, Tennessee. The company said production from the facilities will be shifted to other plants in its network.

• These decisions are never easy because they directly affect our team members and the communities where we operate,” said JBS’s CEO Wesley Batista Filho. Employees affected will be given the opportunity to apply for open roles at other company facilities.

• The closures come as meatpackers grapple with weaker margins for their beef-processing businesses. The U.S. herd has fallen to its lowest level in seven decades after years of drought and elevated feed costs, pushing cattle prices to record levels.

• JBS stock gained 2.8% in Friday trading. Shares were down 13% for the year through the close. Shares of rival meatpacker Tyson Foods increased 3.2% on Friday, meaning it’s now down about 2% for the year.

What’s Next: All this could further drive up operating costs for ranchers and discourage them from rebuilding herds in meaningful numbers. That means meat processors will likely remain caught between high livestock costs, low cattle supplies, and underused plants.

—Evie Liu and George Glover