Earlier this week at our 25th annual Brainstorm Tech conference, I asked a room full of venture capitalists and executives if they intended to buy into the SpaceX IPO. Only a few hands went up.
It’s hard to make the case that the company’s new valuation—a market cap of $2.2 trillion at the end of the first day of trading—bears any connection to the underlying business as it stands today. Despite the skeptics, SpaceX debuted as the largest IPO in history to much fanfare, with shares popping 19% on the first day of trading, solidifying Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire.
SpaceX is now valued higher than all but a handful of established Fortune 500 companies—even though as measured by 2025 revenue ($18.7 billion) it would only rank No. 233 on the Fortune 500. It also posted a $4.9 billion net loss last year, largely due to costs from the pending xAI merger and massive AI investments.
Here’s what it boils down to: As Fortune’s Shawn Tully breaks down, the business today is really three companies in one. Starlink is the current cash cow, backed by 9,600 satellites and over 10 million paying subscribers. Its sales vaulted 50% last year to $11.4 billion, more than half of SpaceX’s total revenue. (I used Starlink this past week on a flight for the first time and it was easily the best United Wi-Fi experience I have ever had.)
The rocket and launch business generated just $4.1 billion and actually lost money. And xAI, the AI unit Musk folded into SpaceX in February, is burning cash rapidly. Investors aren’t paying 90x revenue for any of that—they’re paying for the AI moonshot that doesn’t yet exist, and for Elon Musk being the right person to pull it off.
That’s the dynamic driving the broader market right now: hype over fundamentals. And it’s a positive signal for Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which have confidentially filed to go public and are hoping the AI party continues.
For Shawn’s full analysis of how investors should be thinking about SpaceX and Elon’s long-term galactic AI vision, read his piece here.
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